"We don't restrict Losing Accounts" – The Reality

Account Restrictions – The Reality

At this stage we have all grown tired of the Betting Account restriction talk, however it is an issue that it going to rumble on for the foreseeable future as the problem is becoming worse and worse.

Any successful punter will know the annoyance of being limited to pennies or even zero as the case may be on an account that is beating the bookmakers and is in profit. In those cases I can understand the limits, don’t get me wrong, I don’t agree with them what so ever but if you are turning a consistent profit its only a  matter of time before the firms put the shutters up and say no more. We could go into this with thousands of cases but they are common and will simply be rebuffed by trader’s decision, aka you’re not a mug so we don’t want your business.

However it’s the restrictions on losing accounts that shows the absolute dire state the industry is now in. To me this makes absolutely no sense for any firm concerned and leaves a thoroughly sour taste.

We hear it non-stop from the PR guys that losing accounts do not get limited, never, complete nonsense, does not happen. Most people would buy this story as fact, at the end of the day why would bookmakers close or limit the accounts of people that are losing money to them and lining their pockets? The honest answer is a really don’t know as it makes no sense.

On the Sunday Forum 24/11 with Kevin Blake, Sean Boyce and Simon Clare – Mr Claire tells us: The idea that Corals are somehow turning away profitable business for them is just not true – well the reality is they are and most other firms are in the same boat.

We usually hear of restrictions with little or no idea of the back story etc, and if the account is in a positive or negative profit since it opened. Below I am going to go through the process from start to finish and show the dire state the industry currently finds itself in.

So let’s break this down in realistic terms and what is really happening, I will start this by saying:

1.     There was no “arbing” (or line tracking or whatever nonsense term is being used now).
2.     There were no dirty e/w bets – there was no e/w bet at all on the account.
3.       .A winning account will not be used as this can be explained or pawned off as you are not profitable so we don’t want you.
4.     The account was a mix of Greyhound Racing/Football and Horse Racing.
5.     The last 27 bets a mix of multiples, accums, singles, all which were win only have LOST.
6.     The bets are not placed on night before prices.

Firstly lets look at the figures below:

We have a Coral account used by a recreational punter, lots of multiples and mainly just bets on televised sports that they are watching.

A total of 2344.68 staked in 43 bets which is an average stake of 54.52.

A total of 2344.68 staked compared to 526.91 returned which is a loss on the account of 1817.77 so 77% of the money staked on the account has been lost.

Given the big loss on the account I’m sure you can imagine the surprise to find out the account had been heavily restricted, restricted to the point it may as well have been closed.

Limited on racing bets? Oh I will try soccer, but no it’s the same outcome, limited on premier league games? How can any firm limit bets on soccer? The most bet on event in the world with no edge. 

And that’s not including the fact this is a big losing account which makes things all the more perplexing.

But Mr Clare said once more on the Sunday forum that systems were in place to allow people who are limited on one thing to bet on others e.g limited on racing but can still bet on football.

There must have been a mistake limiting this account surely? Let’s try live chat – I will have to apologise for the format, I asked for the chat to be emailed to me and was told it would be but never was but I had a copy saved to word.

So the massively losing account has been limited? No reason, just they wanted to do it so they have done it and we don’t have to tell you why – a thoroughly unsatisfactory response but then was advised to contact the escalations section through email to query this further. Surely they will see this is an error and sort it all out?

So below is my email sent to the Coral escalations section below to get this sorted.

After waiting a few days I got the following reply:

Another thoroughly annoying response that just in a roundabout way tells us that they are limiting the account, they won’t tell us why and they wont reverse it.

In a week where we have bookmakers moaning about the threat to them of lowering the max stake on cancerous FOBTs I find this all very interesting. Have they become that reliant on machines and casinos that they just don’t need to take sports bets? This is clearly a profitable account for them but yet they do not want the business. What other business in the world do you give a company money and they say no, I do not want your money? 

Given the large majority of peoples interest in racing is when they have a bet on it whether it be Saturdays watching on ITV or At The Races, we need not wonder why interest in the sport is in decline bar the big festivals and piss up concerts. When recreational and losing punters are getting their accounts limited why would they be bothered chasing around to get a bet on, they will just turn their attention to soccer and forget about racing.

There is no sign of a solution either for the foreseeable future, the obvious answer would be to introduce a minimum bet requirement like Australia which would force bookmakers to lay their prices to lose a minimum amount on all channels. Its safe to say that is no where near being introduced in this part of the world though, all we can hope for is that the maximum stake on the FOBTs get lowered way down to £2 a spin and then bookmakers might have to go back to being bookmakers again instead of  making money from being glorified casinos.

That said, its going to be a long road back to the days of fancying a horse, seeing a price you are happy with and freely having a bet on it without fear of restriction or being treated like a criminal for trying to take the best price available! 

**Cheltenham Festival 2016 Handicappers of Interest**

Thomas Crapper 25/1 CHAPS Novices Chase

1. To me he is clearly being minded for this race again and they are afraid to run as if he goes up or down again he may not get in either way.

2. Form at Cheltenham is 8-12-2-3-10-2-8-1-1-3

And the first 2 of those can be easily ignored due to ground/and being hampered in hurdles run.

3. Clearly his seasons are primed around the festival in March

Last 2 years

'15 - Nov Hcap Chase - 2nd to Irish Cavalier in this off 134 (only 1lb higher here) but that only tells half the story as he had a dire run round and got stuck very very wide in the run so was a huge run to finish 2nd and add to that the winner Irish Cavalier is now rated 16lbs higher, his chance off this mark looks glaringly obvious.

14' - 2nd in the MP conditional behind Don Poli - enough said formwise and the less said about the around the whole field ride turnin in the better! 

Loves the track, proven off the mark, proven in the race, hard to see him being aimed anywhere else, will appreciate the ground, jumps well.

What's not to like at the price?!

The only negative is that he hasn't got his head in front in a while but to be fair his seasons have revolved about 1 race in march for the last 2 years.

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Johns Spirit 20/1 Byrne Group Plate

JohnJo's horses showing up slightly better but form may still be a slight worry but this price is too big to ignore.

However this fella is so well hcapped now off 145 i think he will go off fav on the day if he turns up here, and i see no other race he could turn up in.

This is a horse that only went off 8/1 for the Ryanair last year when rated 160.

The rate he was backed on debut this season at aintree off 157 when badly hampered shows me they think he is a 160+ horse and retained plenty of his ability.

Last runs can be completely ignored for me due to ground which he hates and clearly a mark lowering mission. 

-e.g last 2 seasons he went straight to the festival off he back of one race n December, however this year he ran once in December and had two more runs in January even though the ground was completely wrong for him and the trainers horses were running like absolute drains at the time also.

Highly likely to run here assuming he makes it to Cheltenham and i see no reason he wont. All chase wins are at around 2m4/2m4.5 so this trip will be the only one that suits and ran in the race when 4th off 148 in '14.

JohnJo nominated this as a target for Taquin du Seuil during the week but he was rated 152 prior to his very easy win today so would assume he will rise to 160 again now which makes this very difficult. But on the plus side if he does run, Johns Spirit will have a lovely weight under 11st.

Good ground and you will see a very different horse in March and the trainer is beginning to find some winners again the last week after an extremely baron spell. Last 3 wins have all come at the track and the last one was off a 2lb higher mark so this is well within his capabilities.

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Next Sensation Grand Annual 14/1

Dare i say it, another horse whose season has been completely planned around one race. 

He first really caught peoples attention when he ran in this race in 2014 as a well backed 7/1 shot, he led at a blistering and unsustainable pace but did incredibly well to still be beaten under 2l in 4th off a mark of 142.

Last season he came into the race as a relatively unconsidered 16/1 shot off a mark of 143 on ground that he should not have liked. But that did not hinder him as he ran out a ready 4 length winner under a slightly more restrained ride early on.

He began this season off a mark of 151 but he had 4 runs in the space of 6 weeks in conditions that would not have played to his strengths(trip x2 , ground, first time out), which saw his mark drop to 144 which is only 1lb higher than he won this race off last year.

Has had one of the magical breathing operations and has been put away till Cheltenham for this race now(came to Cheltenham off a v similar break last year to win), it's hard to see how he doesnt go off 7/1 or under.


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The Romford Pele 40/1 Coral Cup

Left field for plenty, perhaps. For me he looks one of the handicap bets of the week, just a shame he is not in more bookies lists already.

The trip will be questionable for some but i think a very fast run Coral Cup could really play into his hands as he will be flying home.

1. Has won around Cheltenham

2. Will improve massively for better ground.

3. Will surely be kept over hurdles for the time being as jumping over fences has not been great.

4. Rated 6lbs lower over hurdles than fences.

But the run that really caught the eye was his run last time out. On heavy ground which would not have suited him at all, he ran a monster race at 50/1 when 3rd behind Thistlecrack and Ptit Zig in the Cleeve hurdle. He made v good ground from the back and traveled with a lot of intent before being outstayed after the last on the run up the hill.

Given he was just 2l behind 159 rated horse at the line and all the orses behind him were rated higher than him, i think the handicapper was very fair in raising him just 4lbs from 136 to 140. 

Is entered for a Pertemps Qualifier tomorrow at Exeter but the ground is going to be absolutely bottomless so would be hoping he wont run and to be honest even if he does i don't think he is guaranteed to qualify given swampy conditions.

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Any Currency 10/1 Cross Country Chase

Cheltenham form over the banks - 8-2-2-1-4-2-2-3-9

It was a very rare poor run from him last time over CD, for me every horse is entitled to an off day and it was his 3rd run in 6 weeks which may not have suited given he is getting on a bit now. 

Given this is now a level weights race it will really pay to focus on the higher rated horses with the proven course and distance for and this fella really stands out at double figures each way.

I know it's not rocket science in these races but he was beat just over a length behind Josies Orders here in November trying to concede the winner 23lbs which is why he went off favourite to beat that rival next time when he disappointed.


He is definitely being aimed at the race and has been second in it for the last 2 seasons.

For me 10/1 each way rates a solid bet.


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John Constable 33/1 County Hurdle

92 rated on the flat when with Aidan O Brien, he started off his hurdling career for Evan Williams with 2 very easy wins at Ludlow and Huntingdon at the beginning of last year.

Interestingly then he was put away and reappeared in the Gerry Fielden, the market that day told a story as he drifted from 6/1 in the morning out to 16/1 at the off but he ran very well to prove that market negative all wrong when coming second beaten 4 lengths behind Sternrubin on ground that would have been too oft for his liking. 

Sternrubin was rated 128 that day and i now rated 142 after dead heating with Jollys Cracked it in the Ladbroke at Ascot so that shows the task that was facing John Constable.

Evan Williams has come out and said he wants decent ground and that is why he was pulled out of the betfair hurdle this weekend after being backed from 33/1 into 10/1 Antepost, which shows that plenty think there is juice in his mark of 139 which is only 2lbs higher than his Gerry Fielden run. 

This race to me looks the obvious next stop if they are after a big pot off his current mark and you would think the ground should be perfect for him and he will have no issues getting in the race off a nice weight.

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Qualando 20/1 Martin Pipe Conditionals Hurdle

A big field on decent ground is what this horse needs to be seen to best affect and that's what he will get here.

We saw that last season when he turned up at the festival as an unconsidered 25/1 shot in the Fred Winter off a mark of 131, he traveled well and powered up the hill to see off Bouvreuil.

Given Paul Nicholls' horses were really improving for their first run of the season and the fact he does not want bad ground i am readily able to forgive both his runs this season and it is clear he has been put away all winter to avoid the ground he hates.

Off a mark of 136 now which is only 5lbs higher than his festival win last year, the likelihood of decent ground and a big field with a strong pace i can see him returning to his best form in this race which would look the most likely port of call.

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If in Doubt 14/1 Pertemps Final

A frustrating horse over fences, clearly had a lot of talent but was not a natural jumper and threw race after race away with shuddering errors.

Ran in this race in 2014 off a mark of 140 but really improved in the season in between.

Only one last season did we get to see a glimpse of what he may be capable of and that was off a mark of 139 in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster where he absolutely routed a competitive field even though he made a string of jumping errors.

After this he was sent to the festival to compete in the RSA Chase where hw went off just 12/1 but once more was really let down by his jumping, losing ground at fence after fence behind Don Poil. It was actually testament to his talent that he was actually only beat around 8 lengths and was powering home up the hill to challenge for third and fourth.

His next two runs were then littered with jumping mistakes once more and the decision was taken to revert to hurdles in a Pertemps qualifier at Wincanton. He was quite uneasy in the betting but he traveled very strongly at the rear before being let loose at the last and he powered clear on the run in to win going away.

A 6lb rise for that win seems very fair to me and he could still have a bit in hand of a mark of 146 come March.

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Granted above there is a lack of Irish horses and i am very interested in 3/4 but quite frankly it is impossible to back an Irish horse that does not already have an English mark and he could get any sort of mark from the English handicapper so i am willing to wait for weights and see!

Irish Greyhound Derby 2015

Irish Greyhound Derby 2015


It has been a somewhat underwhelming build up to the Derby this year with a lot of the main protagonists avoiding action in the Champion Stakes or the Dundalk International. And given the Derby is now almost only two weeks away, a lot of their fitness and well-being will have to be be taken on trust.

At the top of the market we have last years flawless winner Laughil Blake, it was one of the best competition performances you are ever likely to see as he was only led by one dog at any stage of a race throughout the whole competition when getting caught on the line by Paradise Maverik in the second round.

The main issue with him this year though could be his fitness, he has only had 4 runs since last November and on two of those occasions he has been injured afterwards forcing him to miss the English derby and champion stakes. If you could be guaranteed he was 100% sound then i think that 16/1 is actually value as this looks a much weaker derby than last year to me but with those doubts lingering i couldn't back him without seeing his well-being.

Next in we have the super bitch Ballydoyle Honey at 25/1, very difficult to judge her for me. Has undoubted class and pace in spades but she has not really been tested against derby quality opposition yet. Has gone off odds on in her last 9 starts and very short odds in many of them which shows the level of opposition she has been dominating in against her own sex. Seriously fast and looks like she will relish the step up in trip to 550 though and breezed through the oaks unbeaten, becoming the first bitch to go under 28.00 in the process. But in here at 2nd favourite and attempting to become the first bitch since Spring Time in 1999 to win the derby I'm happy to leave her at 25/1 as given her tendency to miss the break on occasion, she wont find it as easy to come behind some of these stronger dogs.

Next in is Ballymac Matt at 25/1, probably one of the fastest dogs in the competition when he puts it all together. A very impressive winner of the Gain 600 here and also has a 29.36 for the 550 yards on his card along with 28.28 at Cork and 28.22 at Tralee. That shows how fast he is but he does throw in the odd howler in between which would be a worry backing at his current price and would be enough to put me off but if he was to break in his best fashion throughout he will go very deep.

Sidarian Vega at 33/1 is probably a fair price compared to come around him in the betting, showed he is right back to form when easily winning the champion stakes last weekend to put him to 3/3 around SPK. Has a 28.08 around Tralee and appears to be improving all the time now after returning from a stress fracture of the tibia. Has only had 10 races so the experience of the runs in front of the large crowd will have done him the world of good and he should keep improving and goes straight to the derby now and unlike others at the top of the market, at least he has proven his fitness.

Farloe Blitz and Clares Wonder at 33/1, both very likeable dogs but don't think either will stay the 550 trip well enough to win this.

We have numerous interesting pups to wade through but the doubts about their participation here and lack of experience makes it tough to have a bet on them at this stage. Secreto is one who i saw on a few occasions around Tralee and he screamed Derby dog, has loads of gears and stays powerfully, there is no way i could get involved at 33/1 though as for me that is laughably short.

Amazing Dude was a warm favourite for the Produce at Clonmel after a highly impressive unbeaten run to the final and proved his liking for SPK with 28.27 and 28.33 runs around here. Dropped down to 400 yards when going out of the Bar One Sprint at dundalk last week when favourite though so not sure if they have doubts about him staying 550.

Ballymac Ogie 2/2 at Tralee when winning with authority on both occasions, will be top class but very had to rock up in a Derby on only his third start.


Now onto the ones that really interest me:

Ballybough Mike seems a monumental price at 100/1 on the back of last weeks run. He went much quicker than the winners of the Champion Stakes and the Consolation Champion Stakes and yet is 3 times the price which i don't understand. And there was no fluke at all about the run, he posted a very slick 3.36 split and held all comers down the back before showing he stayed the trip well and powering to the line to win by 3 lengths in a very fast 29.47. Has had a tendency to find trouble at the corner but if he keeps breaking in that fashion there wont be many dogs at the turn with him.

Jaytee Jet screamed irish derby to me throughout his run through the English derby. This dog has pace in spades and i think he will be massively suited to the long run up at SPK and the step up to 550 yards. We have seen glimpses of what he can do especially his 28.27 run around Wimbledon. He has only ever run there and Enniscorthy so the chance to run around a track like SPK that could really suit his run style could see huge improvement in him. He has already showed this in a trial last week when clocking 28.29 with an impressive 1.96 split. If he can find consistency in his trapping like that i think he will go an awful long way through the competition.

Laughil Duke is for me the epitome of the ideal competition dog for this. He has only been out of the first three once in his life and that was when he was badly checked. He perhaps lacks that yard or two of early pace but very few will be staying stronger and he has great track craft and very rarely does he not give his running. Won in 29.34 over 550 here in May and also has trials of 28.19 and 28.24 on his card here lately over 525 so shows what he can do when things fall right. Showed great pace to win the consolation champion stakes last Saturday night and will be very disappointing if he is not still in there at the business end of the derby.

Rural Hawaii seems overpriced at 50s in comparison to some of those ahead of him in the market. Is a very consistent dog and nearly always gives his running even though at times he gives me the feeling that he may not be totally putting 100% in when he is in front. Runs of 28.22 Limerick, 28.37 Clonmel over 525 and 29.52 over 550 at Tralee when winning the race of champions show the pace he possesses. Has shown great early on his 3 runs around here and the combination of that along with his wide seed should see him out of trouble on the outer and give him a big chance to go a long way through the competition.

3pts e/w Jaytee Jet 33/1 Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
2pts e/w Laughil Duke 33/1 Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
1pt ew Rural Hawaii 50/1 Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6

1pt e/w Ballybough Mike 100/1 Skybet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6

Football

**Potential Novice hurdlers of interest 14/15**

Some bumper performers of interest from last season that could be very interesting over hurdles this season - wont waste my time on Shaneshill, Black Hercules etc as we know all about them and everyone will be talking about them for months to come, shall try to find some that may be a bit lesser known and could pay their way for the season.



Investmentsuccess (IRE)

6-y-o (01Jan08 br g)
Oscar (IRE)  (12.6f) — Miss Muppet (IRE) (Supreme Leader  (12.5f))
Trainer Thomas Mullins

After race at Fairyhouse Mon, 21st Apr, 2014 (1st) Just greenness beat him at Cork. It is not his fault he didn't win before now. He is well bred and I expect him to go all the way to the top as a chaser. He is a half-brother to a good horse in Down In Neworleans (and Chomba Womba).   Thomas Mullins

Ran a race full of promise on debut at Cork(2m hvy) behind multiple bumper winner Killer Crow when looking like the experience would do him the world of good finishing 3rd beat 4.5l.

He showed that to be the case when romping clear at Fairyhouse next time (2m g/y). He travelled powerfully throughout and easily took it up 1f out before being sent about his work and put the race to bed in a matter of strides romping clear to win by 7l.

2nd - Draco - maiden hurdle winner since and decent placed form
3rd - Marinero - won a bumper next time out
4th - Bosman Rule - bumper winner since

So the form has a bit of substance to it given the exploits of those in behind and i think the summer could have done him the world of good given he's still green/babyish and could be one to keep onside in novice hurdles next season from a stable that could fly under the radar against more fashionable sorts.


Thistlecrack

6-y-o (29Mar08 b g)
Kayf Tara  (13.8f) — Ardstown (Ardross  (12.6f))
Trainer Colin Tizzard

No trainer quotes

Made an encouraging debut when a staying on 3rd in April '13 but was'nt seen for a year then before reappearing in April at Wincanton in what looked a fair bumper for the time of the year.

He looks a lovely big horse and raced keen enough throughout before taking it up turning in. Jockey let out a bit of rein and he galloped all the way to the line under hands and heels riding while still looking about and showing signs of greeness.

Neck or Nothing in 2nd is a very decent yardstick - impressive winner of a Punchestown bumper and was running a very big race at the Chelt November meeting in a listed bumper before jumping the path and losing all momentum. Finished midfield in the Cheltenham equivalent too  so sets a decent standard.

Considering Thistlecrack beat him by an easy 3l and they pulled 11l clear of the 3rd, it could prove decent form given the winner had the look of a horse that would be a lot wiser for runs.

No More Heroes (IRE)

Race record
5-y-o (01Jan09 br g)
Presenting  (13.8f) — What A Breeze (IRE) (Naheez (USA)  (12.9f))
Trainer Gordon Elliott

After race at Leopardstown Fri, 27th Dec, 2013 (1st) He is a big three mile chaser down the road. He may go for a winners bumper, but really we will have to try and mind him.   Gordon Elliott

Wed, 13th Nov, 2013 "He's a nice horse that ran well on his first start over hurdles but is a real staying chaser in the making." Gordon Elliott

-"He's a horse for two years down the road.

"He's a nice big galloping horse and he looked like he was going best at the line.

"All he does is stay. He's very relaxed and nothing fazes him at home.

"He'll go hurdling next season but we'll be minding him again then," was Elliott's summation in the aftermath. 

Yet another in the long line of Gigginstown potentially top class staying chasers for the future. Impressive winner of a point to point at Dromohane in April last year travelling best throughout and quickening clear after the last to win by an impressive 5l. What makes this victory even more impressive is the horses in behind and what they have done since. Not many point to points will have worked out as well as this:

2nd - Battle Born - 2 time bumper winner for Charlie Longsdon
3rd - Powerstown Dreams - bumper winner for Steve Gollings
4th - Fort Worth - bumper winner for Johnjo O Neill
5th - Royal Player - Maiden and Novice hurdle winner for Philip Hobbs
6th - Voyage of Newyork - wide margin ptp winner next time and Novice hurdle winner for Lucinda Russell

Even 3 of the pulled up horses won point to points shortly after so it looks a well above average point.

No More Heroes made his debut in a maiden hurdle at Downpatrick and shaped with a great deal of promise when behind G2 Novice hurdle placed Gilt Shadow. Getting outpaced before keeping on well into 4th over 2m, a trip that would no doubt have been well short of his optimum.

Reverted to bumpers next time when stepped up to 2m4f on soft ground which would have been much more his trip and he made no mistake, travelling well throughout before taking it up 2f out and powering clear to win by a facile 39l over Bosman Rules(a winner since). This pointed him out as a horse with a massive engine and one to follow for the seasons ahead.

Returned at Naas in February(2m3f sft/hvy) in what looked a decent bumper versus 2 previous bumper winners in the shape of Milsean and Grand Partner. He closed up to join the leader 3f out before taking it up at the furlong pole before finding plenty and pulling away to win by 2.25l from Milsean. He found plenty off the bridle and left the impression the further he goes the better he will be.

2nd Milsean - won a bumper by 25l next time
3rd - Grand Partner - maiden hurdle and novice hurdle winner since

The fact he is only a 5yo, the summer will no doubt have done him the world of good and will be a real force to be reckoned with in staying novice hurdles throughout the winter.

Whether he would be a festival horse would have to be up for debate given trainer comments and minding him for the future but i have no doubt he will comfortable pay his was through the winter months.

Westhorpe (IRE)

5-y-o (24Mar09 b g)
Westerner  (9.3f) — Chantoue Royale (FR) (Cadoudal (FR )  (18.0f))
Trainer W P Mullins

Mullins disclosed: "He shows plenty. The owner's grandson rode him in a piece of work the other day and told us he was a fair sort.

"He should be old enough to have a licence the next time he runs.

"Aubrey will now be looking forward to claiming seven off him in a winners' bumper.

"We'll talk to the owner (about Cheltenham). It is an option but he was bought for Aubrey to ride.

"Patrick said he got very unbalanced from idling in front there." (GC & EM) 

Very nice winner first time out at Fairyhouse (2m sft/hvy) when taking it up 2f out and staying well all the way to the line. Him and the 2nd pulled 18l clear of the 3rd and the form of the bumper looks decent.

2nd Fine Article - won a bumper next time out and far from disgraced when 4th in the G1 Punchestown bumper beaten just 8l
3rd Officer Cadet - won a bumper next time out

He was mentioned as one of 3 in the Willie Mullins bumper team for the Cheltenham Festival shortly before the race but never turned up. Whether it was due to them wanting to give him more time to mature and look after him or whether he had a small setback i dont know.

No doubt he will have more illustrous stablemates ahead of him in the betting markets for the big spring festivals but one thing is for sure, if he has progressed again from that debut as he should have, he could have a bright future in novice hurdles for the season ahead.

Royal Caviar (IRE)

6-y-o (31Mar08 b g)
Vinnie Roe (IRE)  (12.0f) — Blackwater Babe (IRE) (Arctic Lord  (11.7f))
Trainer W P Mullins

After race at Fairyhouse Wed, 20th Nov, 2013 (1st) He's a fine big chasing type, and I was pleased that he could go on that ground because it's turned quite slow. On his pedigree I thought he might want better ground but he's such a strong horse he handled that. I'd imagine he'll go for a winners' bumper. Patrick said he pulled quite hard and was afraid that he didn't settle well enough but he showed plenty of toe. W P Mullins 

Navan:"The time was good and anytime you go under four minutes means you have a nice type," said Ireland's champion trainer, who was completing a 4-1 treble on the card.

"He's a fine big chasing type and he was long odds-on so we felt that there was no point giving up ground and we decided to ride him more positively than we did at Fairyhouse [last month].

"The plan before today was to keep him in bumpers, but we'll have to see now after that. I've a feeling the second is a lot better than we gave him credit for. He looked a lovely horse in the parade ring."

Royal Caviar, a wide margin ptp on his only start previously jumped to the head of the Champion Bumper betting after what was a massively impressive debut success at Fairyhouse (2m2f sft). Travelled very well behind the leaders before taking it up late on to cruise away to a 6.5l success. The manner of the victory suggested he would be going on to much bigger things in the future and would be one to keep onside long term.

Was next seen at Navan when sent off a very prohibitive 1/4 shot to land a Grade 2 bumper (2m y/s) and was surprisingly made pull out all the stops to beat Fine Rightly (a race which he lost on appeal a week later and the placings were reversed). He cruised up alongside as they turned in and looked the winner all the way up the straight but just struggled to quicken when first asked, even tho he did go onto win by over 2l(after cutting the eventual 2nd off) but i have no doubt as the trainer says above that he will be a much better horse on nicer ground as we saw in his ptp.

A lot of people were disappointed by that run, with the fact he had to come off the bridle at all but that is quite shortsighted and they underestimated the quality of horse he was in against.

2nd(promoted 1st) Fine Rightly - a 2 time novice hurdle winner since and rated 134
3rd Desertmore Stream - a 3 time hurdle winner since and rated 135

So as we go on the race looks alot stronger than it did at the time. This was the last time we saw him as he never made it to Cheltenham and was roughed off for the season due to a setback. Hopefully he is over that and will be one to leave his mark over hurdles before no doubt becoming a better chaser again.

Tell Us More (IRE)

5-y-o (01Jan09 b g)
Scorpion (IRE)  (12.5f) — Zara´s Victory (IRE) (Old Vic  (13.0f))
Trainer W P Mullins

After race at Gowran Park Sat, 8th Mar, 2014 (1st) Normally with a horse like this you would wait until the autumn but we will see if there is something similar for him. He won nicely and to change yards and do that was very impressive. There was lots of talk about him at the sales and I was pleased to get him. W P Mullins 

Bought for 290k at the sales after an impressive point to point win that has to be seen to be believed, he was almost knocked over and stopped to a walk trying to avoid a dolled off fence 2 out and still got up to win easily. A video of the race below

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgjiRpOF1f4&feature=youtu.be

Harold Kirk:"He has been bought for an existing client and will go into training with Willie Mullins," said Kirk. "He's a gorgeous horse - today's standout - and he won his point very well. I wasn't there when he won, but the right people were on the phone telling me we should try and get him.

"He's by an exciting young sire and he would be the first one we've had by him. He should make a smashing chaser - he's a big-framed, scopey type."


He then made his debut for Willie Mullins in a bumper in March at Gowran (2m2f sft) led turning in and eased clear to win in a hack canter. The form of the race is questionable as to what he beat but he could not have done it any more impressively. He is probably the one i am most looking forward to seeing again as he really is in the "could be anything category.

Simon Squirrel (IRE)

4-y-o (30Mar10 b g)
Robin Des Champs (FR)   — Misty Heather (IRE) (Oscar (IRE)  (12.6f))
Trainer Charlie Brooks(Now trained by Paul Nicholls and owned by the Wylies)

05 April 2014
A brilliant brilliant  day, Simon Squirrel did as we expected and won the bumper comfortably at Chepstow. It was very encouraging to hear Liam Treadwell tell us there is so much more to come from him and that the penny was only dropping as he approached the line. Liam gave him a smashing ride.. Simon Squirrel has a bright future ahead of him.

Was very hard not to be taken by this one on debut - travelled well to challenge up the straight and powered clear to put the race to bed. Was nt stopping at the line and was still having a look around late on.

Second has nt been seen out since but Sidbury Hill in 3rd had finished 4l second to Josses Hill on his preious run and was plenty of porevious winners in here so form may not be too shabby.

Trainer would not be renowned for his first time out winners either(as far as i can see this is his first) so must be every hope Simon Squirrel has a lot of improvement to come in due course.

Has since been purchased by the Wylies and has been sent to Paul Nicholls which is a very noteworthy move and one that really catches the eye.

A Vos Gardes (FR)

4-y-o (25Apr10 b g)
Kapgarde (FR)   — Miscia Nera (FR) (Panoramic  (9.7f))
Trainer Charlie Longsdon


15Feb14 Ascot   ( 16 Sft ,RPR118 )
He probably hit the front too soon but he is a grand horse. He´ll probably miss Cheltenham and have one run somewhere small before turning him out. - Charlie Longsdon, trainer.
13Nov13 Bangor-on-dee   ( 17 Sft ,RPR98 )
Sixteen pounds is a massive pull. He´s a real baby but has a good attitude and we´ll give him one more run and put him out in a field. : Charlie Longsdon, trainer 

2/2 in bumpers for Charlie Longsdon and looked like a horse that was going to improve for time/runs.

Made his debut as a 3yo at Bangor in November (2m1f sft) and made it a winning one. Staying on strongly late on to beat Foryourinformation who came out and won nto. A Vos Garde was in receipt of 16lbs from the field this day but it was a v encouraging debut none the less given he was just a 3yo.

Then was put away and returned at Ascot in February where he showed that he was still a big baby, hitting the front a furlong out and wandering all over the place but still going on to win by a length. Still a very green immature horse. The 4th from that Ascot bumper, Royal Vaction(beaten over 4l) ran a very respectable race in the Cheltenham bumper when a staying on 9th behind Silver Concorde so the form could be better than it looks.


Value At Risk

5-y-o (28May09 b g)
Kayf Tara  (13.8f) — Miss Orchestra (IRE) (Orchestra  (10.1f))
Trainer Philip Fenton

After race at Leopardstown Sun, 29th Dec, 2013 (1st) He's a beautiful horse and he really rose to the occasion today. The form of his Fairyhouse win was very good. It was different tactics today and he travelled better. He's another chaser in the making and I'd say we'll be looking at Fairyhouse or Punchestown rather than Cheltenham. Philip Fenton

After race at Fairyhouse Sun, 1st Dec, 2013 (1st) He looks like one for the future. He's a grand stamp of a horse. Next stop is Leopardstown all being well if it doesn't come too soon. He's only four and we don't want to rush him. He done it the hard way today and it's a good sign of a horse. He probably wants soft ground . he's a big horse and he's got big feet. We pulled him out at Punchestown, that was too dry, and we ended up running here on ground that was probably better. He looks a nice horse . he's a good jumper and he's a chaser in the making. He could be a very good horse and we'll just stick to bumpers with him this season. I think Cheltenham would be on his agenda . that could be a way to ruin him! Philip Fenton


Looked a real one for the future from an early stage last season and bumper form looks absolutely rock solid.

Started off at then end of the season before at Punchestown when 2nd as a pretty unconsidered 20/1 shot in the market behind Very Wood (Albert Bartlett winner at Chelt) in a bumper and has the likes of Wiklow Brave and Western Boy in behind so it looks a strong piece of form. Was put away for the summer after this and brought back in the winter.

Arrived at Fairyhouse in December on comeback and made all to beat Windsor Park who is a 2 time bumper winner since so this looks good form.

4 weeks later once more over 2m at Leopardstown under a penalty he showed he could do it other ways, travelling well to take it up 2f out before quickening and keeping the gallop up to the line.

2nd Draco - maiden hurdle winner since
3rd Fort Smith - Bumper winner since
Yes Sir Brian in 4th a decent yardstick as a bumper winner previously and placed form behind Wicklow Brave and Goldboy in bumpers and beat just 13l by Vautour in a maiden hurdle.

I am willing to forgive his Cheltenham run which was poor as i have no doubt it was nt the plan all along as per trainer quotes above and to be fair he was cut up completely 3 times in running which makes the result look worse. Things really didnt go his way from a 5f out in running.

He did go to Punchestown and show that Cheltenham run to be all wrong when running a close 3rd behind Shaneshill and Silver concorde in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper. Travelled well into the race from the back and kept going all the way up the straight to the line.

I know there is still a cloud hanging over his trainer but i feel this is a horse guaranteed to improve for time and we could see him step up on last seasons form again over hurdle this time round.

Altior

4-y-o (06May10 b g)
High Chaparral (IRE)  (10.4f) — Monte Solaro (IRE) (Key Of Luck (USA)  (9.4f))
Trainer Nicky Henderson

No Trainer quotes - did get a special mention from NJH last week on tv though

Could not have been more impressive when winning at Market Rasen first time up as a well backed 4/6 shot, so must have been showing plenty at home. They went a crawl early and he reluctantly had to go to the front and make the pace, but the manner in which he quickened clear in a matter of strides at the 3f pole was very eyecatching.

Hard to know what to make of the form as the 2nd has not been out since but its probably not up to much but he was so much better than the rest you'd be very confident he could handle to step up to a decent level.

Paddy Power Scurry - The argument for Discussiontofollow!

Discussiontofollow - 18/1 Bet 365, 16/1 Generally

Thoroughly progressive on the AW during the winter, winning his maiden by 5l and 2 handicaps off 68 and 76.

Firstly off 68 at Wolves when winning comfortably from
- Lexis Hero (has won twice and been 2nd 4 times from 7 starts since)
- Go Far in 3rd has won 3 times since
- Powerful Pierre in 7th won 3 times since

Then at Kempton off a mark of 76 he won on the bridle from Absolutely So who was rated 83 (now 100) and smashed into 4/1 fav for the Wokingham last week off that mark. Who made a competitve handicap at Goodwood into a procession when winning by over 3l off a mark of 92.

Stepped up on that next time at Windsor when beaten just 1l in 3rd after bein trapped very wide in what has turned out to be a very decent race

Joeys Destiny just in front - 2nd has won since
Robot Boy 3/4l behind - 4th has won since
Blessington 1,1/2l behind - 5th has won since
Slip Sliding Away 3l behind - 8th has won since
Corporal Maddox 4,1/2l behind - 10th has won since
Links Drive Lady 16l behind - 15th has won twice since


Was drawn 15 at Windsor and got stuck very wide all the way and was quite keen the 1st half of the race as he tried to take him back to get cover. Had a lot of daylight turning in and had to do a lot of running on his own up the middle which would not have suited given the manner of his AW wins!

Has been risen 3lbs for that but thats fair given he was nt beaten far and the way the race has worked out is very positive and i think he can progress further up the ladder! Shane Kelly jocked up in the RP so assume this is the plan and can only see this price going one way.

Northumberland Plate

The Main Contenders

Pique Sous 9/2

Highly impressive winner at Royal Ascot in the Queen Alexandra Stakes which probably puts him 8lbs+ well in here under a mandatory 5lbs penalty. Fast ground is very important to him and he should get that here. The price is very fair to be honest but i would have a big worry about him turning out again so quickly - its not an easy task trying to win two of the biggest staying prizes of the season in one week. He has also been known to throw in the odd disappointing performance, most notable when beaten twice at odds on behind Ted Veal and Marchese Marconi last summer in races you would have expected him to win.

If the same horse at Royal Ascot turns up though, they have it all to do to beat him.

Angel Gabrial 10/1

Solid performer last year over 10-12f - winning at Ascot before coming a very decent 6th in the John Smiths Cup beaten just 4l behind Danchai. But the step up in trip this season to 2m+ appears to be the making of him. Winning over 2miles at Ripon beating a very decent yardstick in Mubaraza (3rd when jt fav in this race last year) with 7l back to the 3rd Chocola who won next time out and Sizzler beaten 9l in 4th, was a very good 3rd in the Ascot stakes last week so the form has a rock solid look to it.

But the run that really has to catch everyones eye is the run at Chester last time, was keen throughout the race and sat last giving the leader what must have been 12-15l but it was the move at the 4f pole that is quite breathtaking. He passed the whole field wide on the outside and went from last to first turning in. I was v taken by this as he (1) had to quicken v strongly to pass the whole field (2) he was able to quicken away from them again when he met the straight and put 2/3l between him and the field. He was entitled to get very tired late on given the run he put in to get to the front but surprisingly ran all the way to the line when straightened after hanging off the rail. He also showed he improved from his 1st run at 2m+ by beating Mubaraza further than when they met at Ripon.

De Rigeur 14/1

Very progressive sort last season, in the process rising from an opening winning mark of 59 to ending the year on a mark of 95. This included winning a very competitive 2m handicap at Haydock off a mark of 86 by 1.5l from Sun Central with a wide gap back to the 3rd. Sun Central could nt have done more to frank that form winning the John Smiths Silver Cup off 4lbs higher next time and ending the season winning A Listed handicap off 108.

De Rigeur looked to be really out of sorts on his first 2 starts this season when being beaten 36l and 23l on his first two starts of the season, when being well fancied in the market on both occasions. Turned up at Newmarket last time then over 1m4f as an unconsidered 25/1 shot and bounced right back to form when winning from Duke of Clarence (close form with Duke of Edinburgh winner Arab Spring). Didnt have the clearest of runs through but powered home to win when getting in the clear. Still unexposed over 2m after having only 2 starts over the trip.

Suegioo 14/1

Chester Cup winner last time beating Angel Gabrial with a strong run down the outside. Improved for the step up in trip but i think he will struggle to confirm that form assuming Angel Gabrial is ridden with more restraint.

Van Percy 16/1

Easy winner of a 1m6f handicap at Newmarket last time and a 6lb rise looks very fair given the winning margin, That was a funny race though as they split so not sure id be taking the form too literally, but did have De Rigeur well behind. Has looked progressive and the step up to 2m could suit.

Nearly Caught 16/1

Has been highly tried after winning a handicap at Haydock off 85 in September. Beaten 4l in a Group 2 at Longchamp and lost his way after that finishing last in a handicap at Doncaster in his last start and starting this season by finishing last in a Group 3 at Newbury. But i think they could have been riding him wrong and making too much use of him, he showed last time that that could be the case when bouncing back to form with a good 2nd at Haydock last time when held up. He stayed on all the way to the line off 1lb lower and George Baker being jocked up again should mean similar tactics are employed here.

Earth Amber 16/1

A very consistent sort on the flat having come second in two listed races and second in a group 3 since coming from France. But has yet to win for new connections, tried over hurdles but didnt take to it - a 100 rating on the flat v a 113 rating over hurdles! Could rack up quite a few wins in that sphere if they get him to take to them!

Ran very well in April when second in a decent looking listed race at Nottingham over 1m6f off a mark of 92. (High Jinx over 3l behind in 3rd was 2nd to Brown Panther in a G3 last time). And then he went on to even better that effort when finishing 2nd to Tac De Boistron on his favoured soft ground in the G3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot having the likes of Missunited, Harris Tweed and Simenon well behind.

The price he has paid for his consistency though is his mark has risen from 88 to 100 without winning but should be thereabouts at the finish as he is never far away.

Oriental Fox 16/1

Beaten a short head in this race year (when he was my main bet of course!!) by Tominator. Proved that was no fluke by romping away with a Cesarewith trial at Newmarket off a mark of 99. And went on to run 6th in the real thing off a mark of 104 beat 6l after travelling well and not having the best of runs through. I must say it really caught my eye how he travelled in the Ascot gold Cup last week and was far from disgraced being beaten just 9l by Leading Light at the line.

Best of the rest

Dark Crusader 25/1

Probably the most interesting horse in the whole race, 3 wins in a row including a competitive handicap at York had seen her mark skyrocketing from 64 to 97. Was a very well backed favourite on her final start of the season at Ascot when going off at 5/4 in a strong race but was ultimately well beaten in last. Has been campaigned interestingly this season at trips well short of her best - 7f, 8f, 10f so looks like she may be lined up for a big pot somehwere over longer. And the form of her York win ties in favourable with De Rigeur on a line through Dashing Star. Very interesting contender if this is the plan.

Thomas Edison 16/1

Winner of his last 2 starts over 1m4f off 76 and 83. Has another 9lb rise to contend with here but has looked like a horse that had a big pot in him for a long time whether it will be over flat or hurdles. Beat Champagne Fever easily in a bumper and goes in the could be anything category even though im not sure he stays well enough for this.

Whiplash Willie 16/1

Missed nearly 3 years through injury but looked like he never missed a beat when winning on his comeback run over 1m6f at Salisbury off 93. Subsequently went on to finish 3rd behind Brown Panther at Sandown and now has a mark of 108 to contend with even though jockey of the moment Oisin Murphy does take 3lbs off.

Tropical Beat 25/1

Was off for almost a year last season before making his seasonal debut in September. Was a fair 2nd on that occasion before being stepped up in trip on his next 2 starts, On both occasions had no luck in running and chance was gone. 3rd behind Van Percy on seasonal debut this time and could be one to hit the frame if the gaps appear.

Totalize 20/1

Romped away with a 1m6f handicap 2 weeks ago at York, staying on strongly to win by 3 1/2l at the line from Eagle Rock. Goes on good ground but if rain was to arrive his price would crumble being one of the few that will relish a softer surface.

Repeater 25/1

Looked a horse that was bound for a decent win after a very eyecatching 3rd in the Doncaster Cup last season. Travelled like a dream before being outstayed the last 1/2f, but it has'nt really happened for him since, being well beaten on all 5 starts since and not always finding what it looks like he might. Obviously not an easy horse to win with but mark has dropped to  102 from 109 and if he was to find some of his old sparkle could give a decent run. Has nt won since September 2011 though and has been beaten off marks from 86 to 94 in the meantime before two good runs in the Doncaster Cup ruined his mark.


Conclusion - Difficult race as always to sort out and the draw could play a big part. But the question as always is wait for prices to contract further after decs tomorrow or try to nab some value before hand with the usual antepost risk of losing your stake. Angel Gabrial looks a certain runner and can only see his price going one way and would expect him to be a very strong 2nd favourite at off time. He ran an unbelievable race last time and i was quite astonished he kept going all the way to the line after the massive move half a mile out to pass the field and looks one to stay on the right side of in these staying handicaps.

Dark Crusader is the most interesting horse in the race and that price of 25/1 is only going to go one way if she is a confirmed runner and could turn into a big gamble. Question is though, without knowing if she is intended, is it worth losing money Antepost? Probably not.

Oriental Fox proved to me last season he could be competitive off this kind of mark and runs this season have proved no different. 10lbs higher than when 2nd here last year and only 6lbs higher than when romping away with the Cesarewitch trial before coming 6th in the real thing off 1lb lower than his rating here, travelling well and getting hampered. He took a lot of racing last summer so hopefully the run in the Ascot Gold Cup where he travelled very well till they turned in wont have taken too much out of him.


Angel Gabrial 10/1 ew
Oriental Fox 16/1 ew