It has been a somewhat underwhelming build up to the Derby this year with a lot of the main protagonists avoiding action in the Champion Stakes or the Dundalk International. And given the Derby is now almost only two weeks away, a lot of their fitness and well-being will have to be be taken on trust.
At the top of the market we have last years flawless winner Laughil Blake, it was one of the best competition performances you are ever likely to see as he was only led by one dog at any stage of a race throughout the whole competition when getting caught on the line by Paradise Maverik in the second round.
The main issue with
him this year though could be his fitness, he has only had 4 runs since
last November and on two of those occasions he has been injured
afterwards forcing him to miss the English derby and champion stakes. If
you could be guaranteed he was 100% sound then i think that 16/1 is
actually value as this looks a much weaker derby than last year to me
but with those doubts lingering i couldn't back him without seeing his
well-being.
Next in we have the super bitch Ballydoyle Honey at
25/1, very difficult to judge her for me. Has undoubted class and pace
in spades but she has not really been tested against derby quality
opposition yet. Has gone off odds on in her last 9 starts and very short
odds in many of them which shows the level of opposition she has been
dominating in against her own sex. Seriously fast and looks like she
will relish the step up in trip to 550 though and breezed through the
oaks unbeaten, becoming the first bitch to go under 28.00 in the
process. But in here at 2nd favourite and attempting to become the first
bitch since Spring Time in 1999 to win the derby I'm happy to leave her
at 25/1 as given her tendency to miss the break on occasion, she wont
find it as easy to come behind some of these stronger dogs.
Next in is Ballymac Matt at 25/1, probably one of the fastest dogs in the competition when he puts it all together. A very impressive winner of the Gain 600 here and also has a 29.36 for the 550 yards on his card along with 28.28 at Cork and 28.22 at Tralee. That shows how fast he is but he does throw in the odd howler in between which would be a worry backing at his current price and would be enough to put me off but if he was to break in his best fashion throughout he will go very deep.
Sidarian Vega at 33/1 is probably a fair price compared to come around him in the betting, showed he is right back to form when easily winning the champion stakes last weekend to put him to 3/3 around SPK. Has a 28.08 around Tralee and appears to be improving all the time now after returning from a stress fracture of the tibia. Has only had 10 races so the experience of the runs in front of the large crowd will have done him the world of good and he should keep improving and goes straight to the derby now and unlike others at the top of the market, at least he has proven his fitness.
Farloe Blitz and Clares Wonder at 33/1, both very likeable dogs but don't think either will stay the 550 trip well enough to win this.
We have numerous interesting pups to wade through but the doubts about their participation here and lack of experience makes it tough to have a bet on them at this stage. Secreto is one who i saw on a few occasions around Tralee and he screamed Derby dog, has loads of gears and stays powerfully, there is no way i could get involved at 33/1 though as for me that is laughably short.
Amazing Dude was a warm favourite for the Produce at Clonmel after a highly impressive unbeaten run to the final and proved his liking for SPK with 28.27 and 28.33 runs around here. Dropped down to 400 yards when going out of the Bar One Sprint at dundalk last week when favourite though so not sure if they have doubts about him staying 550.
Ballymac Ogie 2/2 at Tralee when winning with authority on both occasions, will be top class but very had to rock up in a Derby on only his third start.
Now onto the ones that really interest me:
Ballybough Mike seems a monumental price at 100/1 on the back of last weeks run. He went much quicker than the winners of the Champion Stakes and the Consolation Champion Stakes and yet is 3 times the price which i don't understand. And there was no fluke at all about the run, he posted a very slick 3.36 split and held all comers down the back before showing he stayed the trip well and powering to the line to win by 3 lengths in a very fast 29.47. Has had a tendency to find trouble at the corner but if he keeps breaking in that fashion there wont be many dogs at the turn with him.
Jaytee Jet screamed irish derby to me throughout his run through the English derby. This dog has pace in spades and i think he will be massively suited to the long run up at SPK and the step up to 550 yards. We have seen glimpses of what he can do especially his 28.27 run around Wimbledon. He has only ever run there and Enniscorthy so the chance to run around a track like SPK that could really suit his run style could see huge improvement in him. He has already showed this in a trial last week when clocking 28.29 with an impressive 1.96 split. If he can find consistency in his trapping like that i think he will go an awful long way through the competition.
Laughil Duke is for me the epitome of the ideal competition dog for this. He has only been out of the first three once in his life and that was when he was badly checked. He perhaps lacks that yard or two of early pace but very few will be staying stronger and he has great track craft and very rarely does he not give his running. Won in 29.34 over 550 here in May and also has trials of 28.19 and 28.24 on his card here lately over 525 so shows what he can do when things fall right. Showed great pace to win the consolation champion stakes last Saturday night and will be very disappointing if he is not still in there at the business end of the derby.
Rural Hawaii seems overpriced at 50s in comparison to some of those ahead of him in the market. Is a very consistent dog and nearly always gives his running even though at times he gives me the feeling that he may not be totally putting 100% in when he is in front. Runs of 28.22 Limerick, 28.37 Clonmel over 525 and 29.52 over 550 at Tralee when winning the race of champions show the pace he possesses. Has shown great early on his 3 runs around here and the combination of that along with his wide seed should see him out of trouble on the outer and give him a big chance to go a long way through the competition.
3pts e/w Jaytee Jet 33/1 Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
2pts e/w Laughil Duke 33/1 Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
1pt ew Rural Hawaii 50/1 Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
1pt e/w Ballybough Mike 100/1 Skybet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
