Thomas Crapper 25/1 CHAPS Novices Chase
1. To me he is clearly being minded for this race again and they are afraid to run as if he goes up or down again he may not get in either way.
2. Form at Cheltenham is 8-12-2-3-10-2-8-1-1-3
And the first 2 of those can be easily ignored due to ground/and being hampered in hurdles run.
3. Clearly his seasons are primed around the festival in March
Last 2 years
'15 - Nov Hcap Chase - 2nd to Irish Cavalier in this off 134 (only 1lb higher here) but that only tells half the story as he had a dire run round and got stuck very very wide in the run so was a huge run to finish 2nd and add to that the winner Irish Cavalier is now rated 16lbs higher, his chance off this mark looks glaringly obvious.
14' - 2nd in the MP conditional behind Don Poli - enough said formwise and the less said about the around the whole field ride turnin in the better!
Loves the track, proven off the mark, proven in the race, hard to see him being aimed anywhere else, will appreciate the ground, jumps well.
What's not to like at the price?!
The only negative is that he hasn't got his head in front in a while but to be fair his seasons have revolved about 1 race in march for the last 2 years.
-----
Johns Spirit 20/1 Byrne Group Plate
JohnJo's horses showing up slightly better but form may still be a slight worry but this price is too big to ignore.
However this fella is so well hcapped now off 145 i think he will go off fav on the day if he turns up here, and i see no other race he could turn up in.
This is a horse that only went off 8/1 for the Ryanair last year when rated 160.
The rate he was backed on debut this season at aintree off 157 when badly hampered shows me they think he is a 160+ horse and retained plenty of his ability.
Last runs can be completely ignored for me due to ground which he hates and clearly a mark lowering mission.
-e.g last 2 seasons he went straight to the festival off he back of one race n December, however this year he ran once in December and had two more runs in January even though the ground was completely wrong for him and the trainers horses were running like absolute drains at the time also.
Highly likely to run here assuming he makes it to Cheltenham and i see no reason he wont. All chase wins are at around 2m4/2m4.5 so this trip will be the only one that suits and ran in the race when 4th off 148 in '14.
JohnJo nominated this as a target for Taquin du Seuil during the week but he was rated 152 prior to his very easy win today so would assume he will rise to 160 again now which makes this very difficult. But on the plus side if he does run, Johns Spirit will have a lovely weight under 11st.
Good ground and you will see a very different horse in March and the trainer is beginning to find some winners again the last week after an extremely baron spell. Last 3 wins have all come at the track and the last one was off a 2lb higher mark so this is well within his capabilities.
---
Next Sensation Grand Annual 14/1
Dare i say it, another horse whose season has been completely planned around one race.
He first really caught peoples attention when he ran in this race in 2014 as a well backed 7/1 shot, he led at a blistering and unsustainable pace but did incredibly well to still be beaten under 2l in 4th off a mark of 142.
Last season he came into the race as a relatively unconsidered 16/1 shot off a mark of 143 on ground that he should not have liked. But that did not hinder him as he ran out a ready 4 length winner under a slightly more restrained ride early on.
He began this season off a mark of 151 but he had 4 runs in the space of 6 weeks in conditions that would not have played to his strengths(trip x2 , ground, first time out), which saw his mark drop to 144 which is only 1lb higher than he won this race off last year.
Has had one of the magical breathing operations and has been put away till Cheltenham for this race now(came to Cheltenham off a v similar break last year to win), it's hard to see how he doesnt go off 7/1 or under.
---
The Romford Pele 40/1 Coral Cup
Left field for plenty, perhaps. For me he looks one of the handicap bets of the week, just a shame he is not in more bookies lists already.
The trip will be questionable for some but i think a very fast run Coral Cup could really play into his hands as he will be flying home.
1. Has won around Cheltenham
2. Will improve massively for better ground.
3. Will surely be kept over hurdles for the time being as jumping over fences has not been great.
4. Rated 6lbs lower over hurdles than fences.
But the run that really caught the eye was his run last time out. On heavy ground which would not have suited him at all, he ran a monster race at 50/1 when 3rd behind Thistlecrack and Ptit Zig in the Cleeve hurdle. He made v good ground from the back and traveled with a lot of intent before being outstayed after the last on the run up the hill.
Given he was just 2l behind 159 rated horse at the line and all the orses behind him were rated higher than him, i think the handicapper was very fair in raising him just 4lbs from 136 to 140.
Is entered for a Pertemps Qualifier tomorrow at Exeter but the ground is going to be absolutely bottomless so would be hoping he wont run and to be honest even if he does i don't think he is guaranteed to qualify given swampy conditions.
----
Any Currency 10/1 Cross Country Chase
Cheltenham form over the banks - 8-2-2-1-4-2-2-3-9
It was a very rare poor run from him last time over CD, for me every horse is entitled to an off day and it was his 3rd run in 6 weeks which may not have suited given he is getting on a bit now.
Given this is now a level weights race it will really pay to focus on the higher rated horses with the proven course and distance for and this fella really stands out at double figures each way.
I know it's not rocket science in these races but he was beat just over a length behind Josies Orders here in November trying to concede the winner 23lbs which is why he went off favourite to beat that rival next time when he disappointed.
He is definitely being aimed at the race and has been second in it for the last 2 seasons.
For me 10/1 each way rates a solid bet.
---
John Constable 33/1 County Hurdle
92 rated on the flat when with Aidan O Brien, he started off his hurdling career for Evan Williams with 2 very easy wins at Ludlow and Huntingdon at the beginning of last year.
Interestingly then he was put away and reappeared in the Gerry Fielden, the market that day told a story as he drifted from 6/1 in the morning out to 16/1 at the off but he ran very well to prove that market negative all wrong when coming second beaten 4 lengths behind Sternrubin on ground that would have been too oft for his liking.
Sternrubin was rated 128 that day and i now rated 142 after dead heating with Jollys Cracked it in the Ladbroke at Ascot so that shows the task that was facing John Constable.
Evan Williams has come out and said he wants decent ground and that is why he was pulled out of the betfair hurdle this weekend after being backed from 33/1 into 10/1 Antepost, which shows that plenty think there is juice in his mark of 139 which is only 2lbs higher than his Gerry Fielden run.
This race to me looks the obvious next stop if they are after a big pot off his current mark and you would think the ground should be perfect for him and he will have no issues getting in the race off a nice weight.
---
Qualando 20/1 Martin Pipe Conditionals Hurdle
A big field on decent ground is what this horse needs to be seen to best affect and that's what he will get here.
We saw that last season when he turned up at the festival as an unconsidered 25/1 shot in the Fred Winter off a mark of 131, he traveled well and powered up the hill to see off Bouvreuil.
Given Paul Nicholls' horses were really improving for their first run of the season and the fact he does not want bad ground i am readily able to forgive both his runs this season and it is clear he has been put away all winter to avoid the ground he hates.
Off a mark of 136 now which is only 5lbs higher than his festival win last year, the likelihood of decent ground and a big field with a strong pace i can see him returning to his best form in this race which would look the most likely port of call.
---
If in Doubt 14/1 Pertemps Final
A frustrating horse over fences, clearly had a lot of talent but was not a natural jumper and threw race after race away with shuddering errors.
Ran in this race in 2014 off a mark of 140 but really improved in the season in between.
Only one last season did we get to see a glimpse of what he may be capable of and that was off a mark of 139 in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster where he absolutely routed a competitive field even though he made a string of jumping errors.
After this he was sent to the festival to compete in the RSA Chase where hw went off just 12/1 but once more was really let down by his jumping, losing ground at fence after fence behind Don Poil. It was actually testament to his talent that he was actually only beat around 8 lengths and was powering home up the hill to challenge for third and fourth.
His next two runs were then littered with jumping mistakes once more and the decision was taken to revert to hurdles in a Pertemps qualifier at Wincanton. He was quite uneasy in the betting but he traveled very strongly at the rear before being let loose at the last and he powered clear on the run in to win going away.
A 6lb rise for that win seems very fair to me and he could still have a bit in hand of a mark of 146 come March.
---
Granted above there is a lack of Irish horses and i am very interested in 3/4 but quite frankly it is impossible to back an Irish horse that does not already have an English mark and he could get any sort of mark from the English handicapper so i am willing to wait for weights and see!
