JLT Speciality Chase

Tour Des Champs 33/1, (betfair fixed odds NRNB, WH)

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 10 X
· Irish bred
· Carrying 10-5 to 10-13 X
· Officially rated 129 to 143 (especially 139-143)  X
· Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won) X
· Posted an RPR of 134+ last time X
· Won over 3M+ X
· First or second season chaser X
· Won 2 to 5 times over fences X
· Won a class 3 or better handicap chase X
· Won or placed in a NH race worth 39K+
· Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2) X
· Priced 11/1 or below ?
· Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe or in Ireland

Meets a lot of the trends

There is one negative with this fella and that is his jumping but he can but he has proved capable of a good round in both of his wins this season.

Proven on soft ground which could prove to be a big plus given the likely testing ground.

Started off the season disappointingly when falling first time out(when held in 3rd by Sire Collognes and ran so sort of race next time out at Newbury when trailing in a disappointing 8th off a mark of 129

Showed the form of that run to be all wrong next time out though when winning by 16l next time out at Ludlow over 3m on soft ground off a mark of 127, jumped well on this occassion and stretched right clear 3 out to win eased down from Allthekingshorses(jumped very poorly behind Loch Ba lto and was staying on when falling at the last, would have been 3rd at best), Milo Milan back in 3rd won next time out.

Ran in a much hotter next time out at Warwick in what lloked a quite hot Novices Chase, jumped average down the back but was still well in it staying on, when falling 2 out(would have been 2nd more than likely the way it panned out) behind Rocky Creek

Rocky Creek rated 142- won the Reynoldstown next time out(now 152)

Fill The Power rated 135

Highland Lodge rated 139

Forgotten Gold 135

So it was a decent race for the level and Tour Des Champs was giving 3lbs to the first 2 and to my mind would have been 2nd if he stayed up, the fall was a very soft one too, seemed to jump fine but just knuckled on landing.

Next time out at the start of February over 3 miles at Ffos Llas he showed he is still progressing with an impressive display from the front, jumped well from the front and was in command from a long way out to win by 31l from the 129 rated Once in a Milan (getting 4lbs too). The 135 rated Benheir pulled up (jumped poor)

Last time out he was stepped into Graded company to reoppose Rocky Creek in the Reynoldstwon on soft, was quite strong in the market this day too and jumped well from the front for a long way and was still in front and well in contention when making a shuddering mistake 4 out which put an end to his chances of winning. Was still quite astonoshing he finished only 13l back from the winner which leads me to believe he would have gone very close without that misteake and the front 2 are very solid horses (rocky Creek 152, Houblon Des Obeaux 148) which i think gives Tour Des Champs some room off a mark of 139.

Fits a lot of the trends for this race, will go on soft ground, mark is workable and should be running here as Sam Twiston Davis is jocked up already for this and is guaranteed to get in. There is obviously a worry about his jumping but he has proved that he can ping around and hopefully he can put in one of those rounds here and i see very little downside to him at 33/1 NRNB ew.

Grand Annual

Alderwood - deserving favourite and will no doubt b a lot shorter on the day, winner of the County hurdle last year off a mark of 139, 1lb lower than his chase mark of 140 here. Anything he has done on soft/heavy during the winter is a bonus and would expect him to improve massively for better spring ground as he did last season! 

Ulck du Lin - This race has been his target for a long time and has been minded for it. Has won well last twice but think a 10lb rise for a win over Nozic last time rises him to a high enough mark of 146 and not sure he has anything in hand of that.

Kid Cassidy - A well backed favourite for this race last year off a 2lb higher mark, has had some very eyecatching runs without getting close to the front this season but i feel he is not one to rely on if it came down to a battle!


Now onto the selection:

Rody 14/1 ew Ladbrokes


"Our horse Rody, who runs in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual. His form is as solid as it comes. At Wincanton he beat Rouge Et Blanc - twice a winner since - and then at Warwick he beat Eastlake and Kapga De Cerisy who between them have won their three subsequent races. We haven't raced him again in order to keep his rating at 140."

Massively progressive horse this season winning two out of 3 and rising from 115 to 140 in the handicap!

Started off the season with a good 2 length 2nd behind a race fit Drumshambo on his first run for 10 months off 115

Drumshambo followed up again next twice and when last seen was a good second to Molotof and is now rated 142

Then in December when next seen made no mistake off a 2lb higher mark of 117 when beating Rouge Et Blanc(104)  easily by 4l even though his jumping was nt great late on

- Rouge Et Blanc has easily won on his last two starts and is now rated 28lbs higher on 132

When last seen in January, off a 10lb higher mark of 127, Rody showed he was not yet finished his progression up the ranks with a highly impressive demolition of Eastlake(125) over 2miles at Warwick where his jumping was much improved!

- Eastlake beaten 8l in 2nd won by 6l next time out and now rated 132

- Kapga De Cerisy 8 1/4l behind in 3rd has won impressively on next 2 starts and now rated 140

- The Chazer 15l behind in 4th won next time out

- Jumps Road 17l behind in 5th won over hurdles last time out off 115

As always a highly competitive race but i feel that Rody still has scope for improvement off a mark of 140 given how well his form has worked out, his mark has been minded specifically for this race and offers some decent ew value at 14/1.

Pulteney Land Investments Novices´ Handicap Chase

The Druids Nephew 14/1 ew (Lads,Fred)

This must be one of the best handicapped horses of the whole meeting off a mark of 135.

Ran a screamer here last year in the Albert Bartlett when out running his odds of 100/1 finishing 6th and in front of the likes of Mount Benbulben, Rocky Creek,Sea of Thunder etc.

But its really the form of his Chase wins that makes him a good betting proposition here at 14/1, if with a bigger name trainer i have no doubt he would be clear favourite.

Started off his chase career at Ascot in November in a race that has worked out extremely well. Had them all in trouble 2 out but was just pipped on the post by Hadrians approach under an inspired Barry Geraghty ride.

- Hadrians Approach a nose in front - went on to finish 2nd in the Grade 1 Feltham behind Dynaste and went down by just a shd when beaten by Unioniste at Newbury last time and is now rated 147

- Rolling Aces 3l behind in 3rd - won on next two starts. Firstly at Newbury beating Merry King who himself is fancied for the 4 miler at the Festival. And next time out at Wincanton gave 3lbs and an 11l beating to Opening Batsman in a Novices Chase. Last time out was probably his most impressive run when going down by just 2l trying to give 9lbs to that same improved rival in The Racing Plus chase when the front 2 were clear of the field. And Rolling Aces is now rated 153

- Kapga De Cerisy 5l behind in 4th and in receipt of 9lbs from The Druids Nephew - has won his last 2 starts very easily and include a 15l beating of Fago at Sandown and is now rated 140

- Act of Kalanisi over 5l behind in 5th won next time out beating Ciceron by 7l and now rated 137

- Representing Celtic 20l behind in 6th - has won 3/3 Jumpers Bumpers since and was travelling very well today when coming to grief

- Handy Andy 30l behind in 5th won 2 runs later and now rated 123


The race has worked out extremely well and shows how well treated The Druids Nephew could be off 135

1. Hadrians Approach 147
2. nose. The Druids Nephew 135
3. 3l. Rolling Aces 153
4. 5l. Kapga De Cerisy (getting 9lbs) 140
5. 5 1/4l. Act of Kalanisi 137
8 30l. Handy Andy 123

Disappointed over 3m next time at Kemtpon on soft but it was said he cut a leg early and tweaked his back so i can forgive that run!

Bounced right back to form last time out when in receipt of 11lbs from Grandioso and defeating him very easily by 10 with the decent yardstick Tony star well held when coming to grief.

Grandioso boosted that form greatly last time when winning the G2 Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton from Molotof and is now rated 145.


All in all i cannot fathom why he is not half the price he is now given how undoubtedly well handicapped he is, goes on all ground, possibly the strongest form in the race and is being aimed here. Looks a standout bet each way at the current 14/1!

Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Galaxy Rock 20/1 ew Generally


14Mar13 4:42 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

Has nt been seen for a while but only entry is here, soft ground doesnt suit so i assume they have been minding him given the winter we have had and are waiting for some fairly decent ground

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 8 or 9 X
· Carrying 10-10 or more after claim (top weight won 2 of last 3) X (should do anyway)
· Officially rated within 11lbs of top weight X
· Finished in first 3 on one or both of last two starts X
· Ran in a class 3 or better handicap chase over 3M+ last time X
· Won over 3M+ X
· 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chaser (or finished in first 5 in 2011 JLT H’cap Chase) X
· Run in 1 to 8 handicap chases (won no more than 2)
· Ridden by a jockey with no claim (R Burton or R Harding) ??
· Trained by N Henderson, D McCain, D Pipe, F Murphy or D Hughes


Meets 7/10 trends, possible more depending on wat happens!

Form at Cheltenham from latest first - PU-2-1-1-4-5-10

Form on good/soft or better - 2-PU-3-4-1-3-1-4

Ignoring soft ground which he doesnt like - last 4 runs at Chelt when good to soft or better 2-1-1-4

In October off a mark of 137 - jumped and travelled well when just beaten by the in form Balthazar King, showed great battling qualities when passed to keep going too i thought

The Nov 11 - easily won a v competitive hcap off 135 with the Hennessy winner (2weeks later) in Carruthers 14l behind in 3rd

Was 4th in this race in 2011 behind runaway winner Junior but is a much improved horse now, dont know why he didnt run last year tbh though

But given he loves the course, will relish better ground and well proven over 3m+, dropped 2lbs for run lto wen ground was massively against him and only 2lbs higher than wen 2nd here in Oct in a competitive race! John Thomas McNamara is due back from injury this weekend and has ridden this fella before and i would be hoping they will link up again goven the quote below from today..

"I'm also riding one for Jonjo in the Kim Muir but I'm not sure which. Alan (Berry) will ride one and I'll ride the other. I'm riding at a point-to-point this weekend. I didn't want it to be a race against time before Cheltenham so I'm going back this weekend." 

Given the doubts about the likely festival targets of those towards the top of the market, this race could cut up a lot between now and the day and 20/1 for Galaxy Rock e/w looks a decent investment.

Coral Cup

Minella Class 50/1 ew Paddy Power NRNB

One of a more speculative one but at 50/1 worth a poke ew

Well worth a watch of his race over 3m1f in a bog lto - was wide all the way and giving away ground but what was massively eyecatching was the amount of ground he made up from miles back on the bridle between 4 out and 3 out b4 folding very late on after somehow looking in with a chance of a place from nowhere!

His only entry is here and mark has dropped from 144 to 132 over hurdles and must b very close to being well handicapped now again

This is a horse who has bags of backclass including


« 1 First Lieutenant (IRE) 7/1 6 11-7 M F Morris 142 * * »
Davy Russell
Chased leaders, ridden from 2 out, not much room last, 2 lengths down on leader soon after, rallied gamely under pressure run-in, led last stride (op 13-2)
« 2 shd Rock On Ruby (IRE) 13/2 6 11-7 t Paul Nicholls 147 * * »
Daryl Jacob

In touch, good headway to chase leaders 2 out, ridden and 1 length down when left with 2 lengths lead last, stayed on well under pressure, caught last stride (op 15-2)
« 3 4½ So Young (FR) 2/1F 5 11-7 W P Mullins 140 * * »
R Walsh
Held up towards rear but in touch, good headway to chase leaders 2 out, staying on to press for 2nd when blundered last, soon outpaced by leading duo but kept on well for 3rd (tchd 9-4 in places)
« 4 2¼ Oscars Well (IRE) 4/1 6 11-7 Mrs John Harrington 147 * * »
Robbie Power
Took keen hold, raced in touch, headway to challenge 2 out, led soon after, 1 length lead and staying on when mistake and sprawled badly last, not recover (op 7-2)
« 5 1½ Megastar 16/1 6 11-7 Gary Moore 141 * * »
Jamie Moore

In rear and not fluent 2nd and 3rd, headway 2 out, soon ridden and never reached leaders, not fluent last, kept on run-in
« 6 nse Minella Class (IRE) 10/1 6 11-7 Nicky Henderson 148 * * »
Barry Geraghty
Tracked leaders, slight lead after 3 out, ridden last and soon headed, weakened approaching last (op 12-1)


Has a failed time as a chaser to overcome but so did Oscara Dara who the stable landed a big hcap with!

Has been 2nd to Peddlers Cross over fences and was travelling very well when falling at the 10th when falling against Cue Card, For Non Stop and Walkon, and went off fav versus Cristal Bonus when pulled up after jumping went to pot nto

Won on his 1st start this season in Nov in a Novice chase beating Theatrical star by an easy 2 1/2l - he beat Colour Squadron by 5l nto and is now rated 135
Arthurian Legend 1 1/3l back in 3rd rated 132 and was a close 2nd to Keppols Hill nto
Restless Harry 4l back in 4th won by 11l beating Tullamore Dew nto


This shows that he retains some quality and his mark has dropped to a very tempting 132 over hurdles, he has obviously had some problems but that win this season at least shows he retains some of his old ability and the better ground and pace at Chelt could see him surprise a few at a very big price if getting in!

County Hurdle

Ifandbutwhynot 20/1 ew Generally


Dont usually look at stats but seein it fits so many i'll chuck em in,

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 5 to 7 (ideally 5) X
· Carrying 10-10+ (not top weight) x
· Officially rated 130 to 140 X
· Finished in the first 3 last time out in last 70 days X
· Run at least 3 times this season & run in a handicap hurdle worth 16K+ X
· First or second season hurdlers X
· Run in 1 to 7 handicap hurdles X
· Won no more than 3 handicap hurdles (ideally won none) X
· Won a class 3 or higher hurdle X
· Finished in first 5 in Boylesports and/or Betfair H’cap Hurdles
· Tends to be held up X
· Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland

Meets 10/12 of the trends

12Mar13 1:30 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Grade 1

13Mar13 2:06 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle) Grade 1

15Mar13 2:08 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3

15Mar13 4:43 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle


Has 4 entries but the 2 novice races are completely out surely and all of his races have been over 2m or 2m1 so it must be county hurdle you would think.

Seemed to need his first run of the season when a beaten fav in 3rd but as it turns out it was 2 130+ rated horses in front so prob nt as bad a run as it was thought at the time!

Then in a Novice hurdle at Newcastle on g/s beat the since very impressive and now 142 rated Eduard(2 wide margin wins and a close 3rd behind Melodic Rendevouz since), jumped and travelled well and showed guts to hold on at the finish!

Followed up that win next time out here at Chelt on soft ground(off 117) when giving 5lbs and an emphatic beating to Taneko Emery(off 112). Was hampered twice in that race and still was a very easy winner.

-Form has since been boosted massively with the 2nd Tameko Emery winning very easily on his next 2 runs and argubaly should have won the Welsh Champion hurdle and is now rated 141

-And Brick Red in 6th beaten 16l by Ifandbutwhynot giving away 1lb winning its next 3 starts and finishing 2nd in a G2 last weekend and now rated 146

Went on to go off favourite in a very warm Sandown Listed Hurdle off 130 next time out but disappointed when finishing 9th of 12 but i think it can be worth forgiving that run as the ground was very tacky and horses that were held up finished 7/8/9 so it was nt easy to come from the back

Bounced back to form last week with an easy win at Mussellburgh off 130, travelled well and quickened when asked to win by nearly 3l from Ultimate giving him 7lbs(Ultimate who was beat 8l by Swing Bowler off levels123 (And Swing Bowler now rated 138) Would probably put Ifbutandwhynot just ahead of it on revised ratings. A 5lb rise for last win does nt seem harsh and Timmy Murphy feels a race like the County will suit

Murphy told Racing UK: "The key to him is if he settles. We slowed up mid-race and I was a lot handier than I wanted to be.

"I think all those competitive two-mile handicaps like the County Hurdle will be right up his street, he loves passing horses and I think he's better left-handed."

and i think there is still some room to play the off a mark of 135 given his form with horses now rated high 130s and 140+

There is a slight worry he may not get in but represents a decent ew bet at 20/1 i think