Sunday, October 27, 2013

NH '13/14 Novice Chasers to Follow

Novice Chasers

Champagne Fever

May as well start off with the obvious in the way of Arkle favourite Champagne Fever. Never out of the 1st three in all of his 10 starts. He is a 2 time Grade 1 bumper winner and a 2 time Grade 1 hurdle winner. Disappointed in Naas last season but was found to be wrong afterwards. Bounced back to form next time when winning the Grade 1 Deloitte Novices hurdle from Bright New Dawn (who went onto win a Grade 2 next time).

After race at Leopardstown Sat, 9th Feb, 2013 (1st)  it's a huge relief to get this fellow back on track - we're always afraid when a horse gets an infection like that which might ruin his season. At least he seems to have come back to where he was though. It wouldn't be a problem going out in trip with him but we'll stick to the Supreme Novices Hurdle.  W P Mullins

Then he went onto Cheltenham, into what looked a red hot renewal of the Supreme Novices hurdle and made all the running to beat the warm favourite

My Tent or Yours in 2nd – Impressive betfair hurdle winner before and an emphatic Aintree winner next time
Jezki in 3rd – is a 3 time Grade 1 winner and won a G1 next time
Un Atout in 4th – won a Grade 1 next time
And there was plenty more quality back along the field to show how good a race it was

"Patrick (Mullins, trainer's son) has always maintained he was a two-miler and an out-and-out galloper - he was dead right.
"He wasn't doing a whole lot in front, but I knew AP (McCoy) was coming to me as I could feel the crowd revving up.
"But, in fairness, when AP got to him, he stuck his head down and away he went again."

The stable always viewed him as a chaser and anything he did over hurdles was going to be a bonus. They were even going to skip a hurdle career altogether and go straight chasing.

After race at Punchestown Wed, 25th Apr, 2012 (1st)  that was an extraordinary performance - he is a super horse. I don't know what we'll do next year; we were thinking of going straight over fences like we did with Florida Pearl but I'm not sure now. I thought he was out on his feet in the straight but Patrick said he was just idling. We know that the third (Mozoltov) is a good horse but Champagne Fever obviously stays well and is a good jumper. He is one that we are really looking forward to and has huge ability.  W P Mullins

So if they are proven right and he will be a better chaser than hurdler, we are in for a real treat this season and he is deserving of his place at the top of the Arkle market.


WPM Stable Tour : “He showed very well as a bumper horse and last year as a novice hurdler and before he went hurdling he schooled very well over fences. With his high cruising speed and his natural ability to jump fast, I’m looking forward to seeing him over fences in his novice season this year.”

Just a Par

This is one that really took my eye last season as one to follow this season – looked a big baby and the summer will have done him the world of good and this point to point winner is bound to improve for the switch to fences.

PN Owners Day: This is one for all your 'to follow' lists. We bought him in the middle of last season and he stayed on strongly to be second to At Fishers Cross at Aintree, which has obviously turned out to be really good form. He was very green and backward, we started out with a shell of a horse, really. He's done incredibly well here over the summer and he'll go novice chasing in the autumn at one of the bigger tracks. Hopefully, he can imitate Rocky Creek and win some nice races.

Won his maiden hurdle here before being bought and switched to Paul Nicholls. He ran a race full of promise on his first start for him when finishing 2nd to a decent  130+ rated yardstick in Many Clouds at Exeter. But its his next run that really took my eye, finishing 2nd in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices hurdle at  Aintree behind easy winner At Fishers Cross. You could see he was still a big immature horse as Ruby was very easy on him but he stayed on eyecatchingly from 2 out and you would think he looks an ideal RSA chase horse.

Nicholls said: “We’ll be going novice chasing with him in the autumn and he’ll be better for a summer and some sun on his back. He’s a really exciting horse for the future and we’re really pleased with him.

“He jumps and gallops and stays - he’s just a little bit green. We would have liked to have latched onto A P [McCoy, who rode the winner] and had a crack at him slightly earlier but his inexperience showed and he got a little bit behind before staying on. We weren’t coming here expecting anything, we just wanted a nice run and to get more experience.

“He’s improved so much since his last run so we’ll be patient, give him a break and then look at a novices’ chase somewhere like Newbury in the autumn.”

One i am really looking forward to as i think he is going to have improved greatly for the summer and it will have given him time to grow up.


Shutthefrontdoor

 A winner of 6 of his 8 starts, this is one i’ve been following from day one. They have looked after him like he is a decent horse. They didn’t send him to Cheltenham for the bumper 2 years ago where he would have been a leading candidate coming off 3 wins which included a listed bumper success.

He was beaten first time out last season at very short odds but proved that running to be all wrong when winning his next 3 starts including when dramatically stepped up in trip from 2m to 3m1f on soft ground for a Pertemps qualifier at Carlisle. He just did enough and AP McCoy was nt too impressed when saying

 "He just kept on. I think he'd lack the experience for the big race."

Was touch and go till late on whether he would run in the Pertemps or not as they felt he lacked the race and big field experience to do himself justice but he ran a race full of promise to finish 4th off a mark of 144. The front 4 pulling well clear of the 5th at the line.

JJ O Neill: "He jumped a bit novicey at a few, but I didn't see any excuses," he said. "He's a lovely horse to look forward to next year.

He is a horse that was far from the finished article last season and looked very novice at times and i think he is only going to get better with time.

Don Cossack

A three time bumper winner and a horse who looked to have the world at his feet when beating Sizing Gold by 10l in a maiden hurdle but that was as good as it got for him last season.

After race at Navan Sun, 25th Nov, 2012 (1st)  He idled a little bit in front but Davy was very happy with him. He will probably come back here for the Grade 1 Navan Novice Hurdle (Sunday December 16th) which is over two and a half miles. We will definitely be stepping him up in trip. We will take it one step at a time with him and it's nice to get that race out of the way.  Gordon Elliott

He went off an 8/15 favourite to beat Pont Alexandre in the Grade 1 Navan Novice hurdle but was beat when falling. Ran respectable races on his final 2 sarts of the season, when 2nd to Mozoltov and 3rd to Annie Power but it was not the season many expected for him with only a maiden hurdle win to show for it.

GE:“Has been schooling very well over fences. Was a bit disappointing last year so we are hoping that fences will bring the best out of him and we are looking forward to getting him out. He’ll need rain before he runs.”

I would’nt be writing this fella off completely yet and as with all Gigginstown horses, the sight of a few fences could bring out the best in him.

Morning Assembly

I have seen plenty championing the causes of Inish Island and Ballycasey this season but Morning Assembly beat both fair and square at Punchestown in the Grade 1 Daily Mirror Novices hurdle where he relished the step up in trip to 3 miles. I was impressed with his attitude and how he battled back to pull away at the finsh when he was passed

After race at Punchestown Wed, 24th Apr, 2013 (1st)  it's great to have a win like this as we've had a very slack season and after Fairyhouse (where he fell) we were really down on the ground. However we decided to stick with him and go for this Grade 1 and he proved he's a real dour stayer and came home really well today. I'd say we'll go chasing next season and he'll respect a fence a lot more. He was bought to be a chaser and I'm just lucky to have such a good horse!  P A Fahy

He has’nt always been the most fluent of hurdlers but chasing is a different game and i see no reason as to why he wont be able to challenge for top honours over fences throughout the winter.

African Gold

Took high ranks in the staying novice division last season with his second to At fishers Cross in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham. He improved out of all proportion throughout the season, from winning an Novice handicap hurdle off 118 at Newbury to a rating of 148. He beat Close Touch easily in an EBF final qualifier at Doncaster in February on soft ground in a race that worked out well

Close touch 4l 2nd went on to win the EBF final at Sandown by 12l
McllHatton 9l 3rd won by 7l next time in a novice hurdle
Warden Hill in 4th won a Novice hurdle this week

"You'll see him next in the Albert Bartlett and I think he's the perfect type for the race," said Twiston-Davies."He's done absolutely everything we've asked of him this season and he keeps on pulling more out."He's not flashy, but I don't think flashy types win these races - he's very progressive."What with him and The New One I think we're heading there with some very good chances this year."

He was nt able to go with At fishers Cross after the last at Cheltenham but there was no shame in that given how high quality that rival could be given his romp at Aintree also. African Gold was purchased by Dai Walters during the summer for a chase campaign so at least he is definitely being aimed over the larger obstacles and i see no reason why he should nt improve again this season.

He is ready to start off his new venture with Twiston-Davies' trainer father Nigel looking for the right opening."We've got African Gold and a few quite smart ones to come out," said Twiston-Davies."He's in good form, he's going chasing and we just want to find the right race. At this time of year everyone is bringing their nice novices out, so trying to find a weak novice chase is hard."We want him to have a nice introduction first time out so that is what we are waiting for."

Mozoltov

A horse who has obviously had his problems iven he has only seen the racetrack seven times since February 2011 but he clearly has a lot of ability. Third in the Grade 1 bumper in 2012 at Punchestown behind

Champagne Fever 9l in front – 2 time Grade 1 winner since
Melodic Rendevouz 1l in front – Grade 1 winner since
And there was plenty more winners in behind

Unbeaten last season in 2 hurdle starts, he won a maiden at Gowran by 24 lengths before he took a big step up in class in his stride winning a Grade 2 hurdle at Punchestown beating Don Cossack and Ned Buntline.

After race at Punchestown Sun, 3rd Feb, 2013 (1st)  Mozoltov has been doing good work at home and I've been waiting for a nice race to get him out instead of taking on one of our own. I didn't think he'd be taking on as good a bunch as these and he has to go into 'the top drawer'. I'd imagine we're looking for the Supreme Novices hurdle with him and he can only be better on better ground and Ruby said he wasn't at home on that ground today.  W P Mullins

WPM Stable Tour: “He’s a horse who had a light enough season last year but his form looked good and he looks a real chaser. I’m looking forward to him.”

Mullaghanoe River

A point to point winner for Willie Codd, he won a bumper and a maiden hurdle from 4 starts for Noel Meade. Still a very young horse and one that could improve this season and next.

Beat Wedding Present in a 2m4f bumper at Leopardstown in December and that rival went onto win next time out and has won a maiden hurdle since too.

His jumping really let him down next time in a maiden hurdle won by Mala Beach, he was very untidy all the way round.
But got his act back together next time at Navan when easily disposing of Gold Bullet by over 3l in a 2m4f maiden in soft ground

Gold Bullet rated 132 and won next 2 starts
Perfect Gentleman beaten over 10l in 4th has won a maiden hurdle easily since
Clar Na Mionn beaten 19l in 5th easily won a maiden hurdle nto
Totally Coutoure in 10th has won a maiden hurdle since

So the race probably was not as poor as it looked at the time and he remains one to look forward to over fences.

Noel Meade:We are excited about him going chasing. He won a bumper and a maiden hurdle for us last season. He won a point for Willie Codd so you’d like to think he could develop into a nice chaser. He’s only five so I hope he has a big future ahead. He stays very well and we like him a lot. He’s not too far off a run so you’ll be seeing him soon. 

NH 13/14 Novice Hurdlers to Follow

Novice hurdlers

Diamond King

The form of his 2 bumper wins doesn’t amount to much but the manner of the victories both time was very taking. Taking it up 4f out on both occasions and powering clear relentlessly to win easily by wide margins. He was kept away from Cheltenham last season to mind him for hurdling this season.

D McCain: Yes, it was a good performance and on that evidence he's well worth his place in the field but the Cheltenham bumper certainly isn't the be-all-and-end-all that some might have you believe and he's got the pedigree and scope to think he's going to be a cracking horse for a good few years yet.
The owners aren't putting me under any pressure to aim him there which is always reassuring - as I say, he's a smashing horse who is hopefully going to be around for a long time.

Looks to me to be very much in the Peddlers Cross mould and he can be prominent and just keep galloping and looks certain to start off at 2 1/2m+ and to be aimed at the Neptune if good enough as per stable tour

“He’s just got everything and long term I think it will be more likely the Neptune than the Supreme at Cheltenham. He already schooled well last season.”


Legacy Gold.

Beat Runswick Royale fto easily - that one went on to win 1st 2 hurdle starts and was 2nd in a G1 at Aintree(Irish Saint, Flaxen flare, Rolling Star, Vasco Du Ronceray etc behind).

Hosed up again fto at Catterick under a pen - 2nd and 3rd won since .

Then went on to Aintree in the Listed Mares Bumper and once more won very easily - Cailin Annamh 2nd  beaten 4l is rated 132 over hurdles and has won last 4 hurdles starts - The Pirates Queen in 5th beaten 12l - form ties in with West Wizard.

The winner was trained by Crawford’s brother Stuart in Northern Ireland and the rider said: “Legacy Gold is good. It wasn’t the plan to sit last but plans change and they went pretty quick so I was happy to sit. She switches off and you need to sit because even if you give her a small tap to sit, she sees that as time to go. I had to be patient and going down the back one or two fell away so I picked them off.

“I was always happy but the only thing I wasn’t happy with was that I got there too soon. It wasn’t my doing as horses were coming back at me and I had to go wide to get out of the way.

“I didn’t quicken one yard to get to the front and I tried to hold her but there becomes a point when you have got to go. I was confident I was close enough to home that she would see it out all the way.

“She’s not that big but to all those lads out there, she has just proved size is irrelevant!

“People may say she had only won at Sedgefield and Catterick but the racing at those courses has got better over the last couple of years. The race she won first time out at Sedgefield, the horse that was second was Runswick Royal, who finished second in the Grade One novice hurdle yesterday. So there you have a Grade One runner-up and a Listed winner from a bumper at Sedgefield. They are not soft races now.

“I rode the winner of the Grade Two bumper here at Aintree in 2005 so I know these days don’t come around too often - that was eight years ago so you soak it up.

“At Cheltenham, Ruby (Walsh) said he knows how it feels to be a footballer for a day but today I know how it feels to be Ruby for a day.
Was bought during the summer by Roger Brookhouse and has been transferred to David Pipe who said
Roger Brookhouse 111- RPR 124b An exciting addition to the string. She was bought at the Cheltenham Brightwells sale in April after finishing her season unbeaten in bumpers when trained in Northern Ireland by Stuart Crawford. She stamped her class on the Listed mares’ race at Aintree and it’s lovely to have a mare of her potential. The opportunities for fillies and mares are so much better nowadays it shouldn’t be difficult to place her in her first season over hurdles.
I expect her  to rack up a few wins this season.

I think she has been massively undervalued in the Supreme market and availed of some triple figure odds

West Wizard

Very easy winner of a Kempton bumper first time out when the dogs in the street were barking about him and went off a very well backed 4/5f. Travelled very eyecatchingly and went away to win by 6l with the minimum of fuss.
The Pirate Queen in 2nd – was 5th in the Aintree mares bumper (behind Legacy Gold) next time and won last time out
The Skyfarmer beaten 8l  in 3rd has won both his starts since so the form doesn’t look too bad

Barry Geraghty in a recent interview:
This is one very exciting prospect. I heard great reports before I ever sat on him and once I’d ridden him work I could understand why that was. He goes like a really good horse and although you often have “morning glories” this certainly isn’t one because he couldn’t have been more impressive when we won his Kempton debut in March by six lengths. He’s by a great sire in King’s Theatre. I’m really looking forward to schooling him as soon as we get some nice ground.

Nicky Henderson in recent stable Tours:
"He was seriously impressive (in ref to kempton).He looked the type who would need plenty of time,but he was surprisingly precocious for a horse of his size.We talked about the Aintree bumper,but I know we made the right decision in putting him away."
“Precocious for a horse of his build and seriously impressive. Has returned looking even bigger and better. Exciting for novice hurdles.”

Had the look of a horse who would improve for the summer on his back and the xperience of seeing the racetrack first time so i expect him to take high ranking in the Novice hurdle division this season.


Urubu D'Irlande

Well backed when making a winning debut at Taunton in October last year, has nt run since but that has been due to a bout of Colic

Paul Nicholls owners Day:

This is a nice horse who's won both his starts, in a point before he came to us and then in a Taunton bumper last year, the form of which is working out. Unfortunately, he then had a bad bout of colic and we decided to leave him to start again this season. He'll be a nice horse to follow and will be in novice hurdles once we get some decent ground.

The fom of that bumper could nt have worked out any better and Urubu D’Irlande has to go into the could be anything category

Oscar Rock beaten 3l in 2nd won his next 2 starts including an impressive 8l romp of a Newbury Listed bumper on his final start
Kilmurvy beaten over 4l in 3rd won his next 2 starts in bumpers also
Kenai Peninsula beaten over 9l in 4th won on his next start in a novice hurdle
Billy Dutton beaten over 9l in 5th won a novice hurdle 2 starts later

So the form has a very solid look to it

He is a horse i like a lot and will go straight over hurdles - PN

Hopefully he can stay fit and well for the season and we get to see what he is capable of.

Kings Palace

Started off this season winning a 2m7f maiden hurdle at Fontwell even though he jumped badly at the last 2 and hung towards the gate on the run in.

-Billy No name in 3rd beaten 16l is rated 121 and won easily next time out

Then last week at Cheltenham over 3m1f at Cheltenham he absolutely destroyed a fair looking field for the time of the year by 18l. Quickening clear for the front and staying on strongly to win by 18l from the 131 rated Creepy.

Trainer David Pipe said: ““He’s bred to stay but he’s not slow – he’s shown a bit of pace as well,” he said. “We had a very good bunch of younger horses last season and he was one of them.”


From his website: What a great performance from Kings Palace to win the 3m1 1/2f novices' hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday by a very impressive eighteen lengths.  Prominent throughout he moved effortlessly into the lead and gradually drew further and further away.  The runner-up (although not proven at the trip) was rated 131 and the third won a Welsh National last season, so the form looks distinctly useful.  He has only had five starts to date (only three of those over hurdles), so let's hope that he can continue to progress.  He is versatile too, possessing the pace for 2m4f while clearly staying further. 

Looks a typical Albert Bartlett horse who just keeps on galloping and has the potential to improve further with runs throughout the season.


Willie Mullins Inmates

Briar Hill:

An easy 1/5f winner of what looked an average Thurles bumper in January before going on to surprise in the Cheltenham bumper, when powering up the hill to win by 7l going away. Currently 2nd fav for the Supreme on here but i think he is more likely to step up in trip

After race at Thurles Thu, 3rd Jan, 2013 (1st)  He hadn't shown me anything until he worked the other day,. He's probably the type to show more on the track and that's a good sign in a horse. We haven't decided whether or not he'll go over hurdles but I'd imagine after that he'd be good enough for a winners bumper. A step up in trip would probably do him no harm either and on his pedigree he'd probably prefer better ground too.  W P Mullins

After Cheltenham: Mullins, who was posting back-to-back winners in this following Champagne Fever's victory 12 months ago, said: "I had four horses aimed at this and he was the fourth. I wasn't pushing into bringing him.
"We knew he had a little ability. He has no ability at home but he comes alive at the races and I love horses like that. If he'd have finished tenth we'd have been equally pleased. The better ground and his stamina have helped him."
Walsh added: "I wasn't really counting on this fella to give me a winner. He surprised me.
"I had a bad break and got knocked down and had to ride a different race but it worked out. When I gave him a smack he took off and was very impressive.
"He's no Flash Harry at home but I don't mind if they do it at the races."

The way he powered up the hill at Cheltenham was impressive and he is going to take a lot of stopping in 2 1/2m+ hurdles this season.

WPM Stable Tour: “Jumps very well at home and he is an obvious staying novice hurdle candidate. You’d think he would possibly be a Neptune or an Albert Bartlett candidate at this stage. He’s not a horse that shows an awful lot at home and he seems to reserve his best for the racetrack, which I’m not unhappy about.”

Faugheen

A talking horse for the Cheltenham bumper last year but didn’t see the track in time to travel due to injury

"He's been working well at home. He had a little problem in the autumn that kept him out but he's fine now and I'd like to go for a winners bumper with him."

He travelled well and quickened impressively when asked – showed an impressive turn of speed considering he is a ptp winner over 3m. It’s not often a horse wins a bumper in that fashion by 22l going away and is obviously an exciting one for the season if they can keep him right and i think he is a lot more likely that he will be kept to 2m than it is with Briar Hill.

WPM Stable Tour:“Faugheen is another real chasing type who impressed in his bumper. Looks like he will start his novice hurdling campaign shortly. If he’s able to carry through the ability he showed in his bumper to hurdling he would be one I’m looking forward to seeing in the staying novice hurdling ranks.


Moyle Park

A 250,000 purchase at the sales after an impressive debut for Harry Kelly beating a decent sort in Blackmail by 4l

After race at Leopardstown Wed, 26th Dec, 2012 (1st)  We thought he would do that and it is super that he has. We didn't come here for the good of our health!. He was working extremely well. He was only bought in June at the Goffs Land Rover Sales (for €10,000). We think an awful lot of him. That was only his second time on grass.   David Harry Kelly

Then on his first start for Willie Mullins went onto give weight all around and win the Goffs Land Rover bumper at Punchestown. But that only tells half the story as he raced unbelievably keenly throughtout the race just behind a slow pace and it’s a testament as to how good he is that he was able to do that, give over a stone to the second and still win. Could be very good when getting a fast pace to run off

After race at Punchestown Tue, 23rd Apr, 2013 (1st)  He must be tough to do what he did. He pulled so hard from the very beginning. I thought he couldn't keep it up but he must have a fair engine. He gallops and stays . he was very strong but they went no pace. He'll have no problem going out in trip . that'll be him for the season and he'll come back over hurdles next term,. so   W P Mullins

WPM Stable Tour: “Put up one of the gutsiest performances all year when winning the Land Rover Bumper. We thought he looked beaten a furlong down but he just stuck out his head and ground out to the finish and won going away. With that sort of toughness he should be a great addition to the novice hurdle ranks. His style of racing suggests he might want the minimum trip but he does look to have a lot of stamina. We’ll probably start off over 2m and move him out in trip if we have to. I’m not in any rush to get him out.”

Clondaw Court

Antepost Cheltenham bumper favourite after an effortless bumper romp first time out but didn’t make it to either of the big festivals ad has not been seen since. Potentially the most exciting novice hurdler in his stable if they can get and keep him right. Was a breathtaking display when winning hi sPinchestown bmper and i think we knew we had seen a good one, just a shame he has nt been out since.

Willie Mullins said of Susannah Ricci's £130,000 buy: "He did what he's been showing us at home. He did one bit of very good work and he translated that to the track.
"I had planned to go jumping but we'll have to go for a winners bumper now. He looks good."

WPM Stable Tour: “He’s a real chaser in the making but he’ll start off novice hurdling and it would appear he might be best suited in the staying division. He looks a good start.”

Turnandgo

A point to point winner on good ground before being beaten at odds on at Clonmel on his first start under rules. He showed that running to be wrong when impressively winning 2 heavy ground bumpers, the one at Punchestown was particularly impressive as it looked a decent field he disposed of. Even though he won a ptp on good ground, WPM feels he is much better on soft so could be worth keeping onside throughout the winter.

After race at Clonmel Thu, 7th Mar, 2013 (1st)  He loves that soft ground and he will make a smashing chaser. We'll wait to see what Michael (O'Leary) wants to do next.  W P Mullins

WPM Stable Tour: “Turnandgo looks a real chaser. He’s by Morozov and if he can transfer his bumper form over hurdles he’s another horse who should make into a good staying novice hurdler.”

Outlander

A three time bumper winner who disappointed on his last start when sent off favourite for the Grade 1 bumper at the Punchestown festival. All 3 wins came on very soft ground and once more could be one to pay his way over hurdles on the soft ground during the winter months.

After race at Leopardstown Sat, 29th Dec, 2012 (1st)  He doesn't show that ability at home, he seems to keep it for the race track. We won't go hurdling with him yet we will try and find another winners bumper before the ground dries out. His pedigree would suggest he likes a good cut in the ground. We will keep him for novice hurdles next season.  W P Mullins

WPM Stable Tour: “Outlander advertised his ability by winning three bumpers and he’ll go novice hurdling and I imagine the staying division will be his forte.”

Sunday, March 10, 2013

JLT Speciality Chase

Tour Des Champs 33/1, (betfair fixed odds NRNB, WH)


Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 10 X
· Irish bred
· Carrying 10-5 to 10-13 X
· Officially rated 129 to 143 (especially 139-143)  X
· Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won) X
· Posted an RPR of 134+ last time X
· Won over 3M+ X
· First or second season chaser X
· Won 2 to 5 times over fences X
· Won a class 3 or better handicap chase X
· Won or placed in a NH race worth 39K+
· Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2) X
· Priced 11/1 or below ?
· Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe or in Ireland



Meets a lot of the trends

There is one negative with this fella and that is his jumping but he can but he has proved capable of a good round in both of his wins this season.

Proven on soft ground which could prove to be a big plus given the likely testing ground.

Started off the season disappointingly when falling first time out(when held in 3rd by Sire Collognes and ran so sort of race next time out at Newbury when trailing in a disappointing 8th off a mark of 129

Showed the form of that run to be all wrong next time out though when winning by 16l next time out at Ludlow over 3m on soft ground off a mark of 127, jumped well on this occassion and stretched right clear 3 out to win eased down from Allthekingshorses(jumped very poorly behind Loch Ba lto and was staying on when falling at the last, would have been 3rd at best), Milo Milan back in 3rd won next time out.

Ran in a much hotter next time out at Warwick in what lloked a quite hot Novices Chase, jumped average down the back but was still well in it staying on, when falling 2 out(would have been 2nd more than likely the way it panned out) behind Rocky Creek

Rocky Creek rated 142- won the Reynoldstown next time out(now 152)
Fill The Power rated 135
Highland Lodge rated 139
Forgotten Gold 135

So it was a decent race for the level and Tour Des Champs was giving 3lbs to the first 2 and to my mind would have been 2nd if he stayed up, the fall was a very soft one too, seemed to jump fine but just knuckled on landing.

Next time out at the start of February over 3 miles at Ffos Llas he showed he is still progressing with an impressive display from the front, jumped well from the front and was in command from a long way out to win by 31l from the 129 rated Once in a Milan (getting 4lbs too). The 135 rated Benheir pulled up (jumped poor)

Last time out he was stepped into Graded company to reoppose Rocky Creek in the Reynoldstwon on soft, was quite strong in the market this day too and jumped well from the front for a long way and was still in front and well in contention when making a shuddering mistake 4 out which put an end to his chances of winning. Was still quite astonoshing he finished only 13l back from the winner which leads me to believe he would have gone very close without that misteake and the front 2 are very solid horses (rocky Creek 152, Houblon Des Obeaux 148) which i think gives Tour Des Champs some room off a mark of 139.

Fits a lot of the trends for this race, will go on soft ground, mark is workable and should be running here as Sam Twiston Davis is jocked up already for this and is guaranteed to get in. There is obviously a worry about his jumping but he has proved that he can ping around and hopefully he can put in one of those rounds here and i see very little downside to him at 33/1 NRNB ew.

Friday, March 1, 2013

Grand Annual

Alderwood - deserving favourite and will no doubt b a lot shorter on the day, winner of the County hurdle last year off a mark of 139, 1lb lower than his chase mark of 140 here. Anything he has done on soft/heavy during the winter is a bonus and would expect him to improve massively for better spring ground as he did last season! 

Ulck du Lin - This race has been his target for a long time and has been minded for it. Has won well last twice but think a 10lb rise for a win over Nozic last time rises him to a high enough mark of 146 and not sure he has anything in hand of that.

Kid Cassidy - A well backed favourite for this race last year off a 2lb higher mark, has had some very eyecatching runs without getting close to the front this season but i feel he is not one to rely on if it came down to a battle!


Now onto the selection:

Rody 14/1 ew Ladbrokes


"Our horse Rody, who runs in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual. His form is as solid as it comes. At Wincanton he beat Rouge Et Blanc - twice a winner since - and then at Warwick he beat Eastlake and Kapga De Cerisy who between them have won their three subsequent races. We haven't raced him again in order to keep his rating at 140."

Massively progressive horse this season winning two out of 3 and rising from 115 to 140 in the handicap!

Started off the season with a good 2 length 2nd behind a race fit Drumshambo on his first run for 10 months off 115
Drumshambo followed up again next twice and when last seen was a good second to Molotof and is now rated 142

Then in December when next seen made no mistake off a 2lb higher mark of 117 when beating Rouge Et Blanc(104)  easily by 4l even though his jumping was nt great late on
- Rouge Et Blanc has easily won on his last two starts and is now rated 28lbs higher on 132

When last seen in January, off a 10lb higher mark of 127, Rody showed he was not yet finished his progression up the ranks with a highly impressive demolition of Eastlake(125) over 2miles at Warwick where his jumping was much improved!

- Eastlake beaten 8l in 2nd won by 6l next time out and now rated 132

- Kapga De Cerisy 8 1/4l behind in 3rd has won impressively on next 2 starts and now rated 140

- The Chazer 15l behind in 4th won next time out

- Jumps Road 17l behind in 5th won over hurdles last time out off 115

As always a highly competitive race but i feel that Rody still has scope for improvement off a mark of 140 given how well his form has worked out, his mark has been minded specifically for this race and offers some decent ew value at 14/1.

Pulteney Land Investments Novices´ Handicap Chase


The Druids Nephew 14/1 ew (Lads,Fred)

This must be one of the best handicapped horses of the whole meeting off a mark of 135.

Ran a screamer here last year in the Albert Bartlett when out running his odds of 100/1 finishing 6th and in front of the likes of Mount Benbulben, Rocky Creek,Sea of Thunder etc.

But its really the form of his Chase wins that makes him a good betting proposition here at 14/1, if with a bigger name trainer i have no doubt he would be clear favourite.

Started off his chase career at Ascot in November in a race that has worked out extremely well. Had them all in trouble 2 out but was just pipped on the post by Hadrians approach under an inspired Barry Geraghty ride.

- Hadrians Approach a nose in front - went on to finish 2nd in the Grade 1 Feltham behind Dynaste and went down by just a shd when beaten by Unioniste at Newbury last time and is now rated 147

- Rolling Aces 3l behind in 3rd - won on next two starts. Firstly at Newbury beating Merry King who himself is fancied for the 4 miler at the Festival. And next time out at Wincanton gave 3lbs and an 11l beating to Opening Batsman in a Novices Chase. Last time out was probably his most impressive run when going down by just 2l trying to give 9lbs to that same improved rival in The Racing Plus chase when the front 2 were clear of the field. And Rolling Aces is now rated 153

- Kapga De Cerisy 5l behind in 4th and in receipt of 9lbs from The Druids Nephew - has won his last 2 starts very easily and include a 15l beating of Fago at Sandown and is now rated 140

- Act of Kalanisi over 5l behind in 5th won next time out beating Ciceron by 7l and now rated 137

- Representing Celtic 20l behind in 6th - has won 3/3 Jumpers Bumpers since and was travelling very well today when coming to grief

- Handy Andy 30l behind in 5th won 2 runs later and now rated 123


The race has worked out extremely well and shows how well treated The Druids Nephew could be off 135

1. Hadrians Approach 147
2. nose. The Druids Nephew 135
3. 3l. Rolling Aces 153
4. 5l. Kapga De Cerisy (getting 9lbs) 140
5. 5 1/4l. Act of Kalanisi 137
8 30l. Handy Andy 123

Disappointed over 3m next time at Kemtpon on soft but it was said he cut a leg early and tweaked his back so i can forgive that run!

Bounced right back to form last time out when in receipt of 11lbs from Grandioso and defeating him very easily by 10 with the decent yardstick Tony star well held when coming to grief.

Grandioso boosted that form greatly last time when winning the G2 Pendil Novices Chase at Kempton from Molotof and is now rated 145.


All in all i cannot fathom why he is not half the price he is now given how undoubtedly well handicapped he is, goes on all ground, possibly the strongest form in the race and is being aimed here. Looks a standout bet each way at the current 14/1!

Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Galaxy Rock 20/1 ew Generally


14Mar13 4:42 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

Has nt been seen for a while but only entry is here, soft ground doesnt suit so i assume they have been minding him given the winter we have had and are waiting for some fairly decent ground

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 8 or 9 X
· Carrying 10-10 or more after claim (top weight won 2 of last 3) X (should do anyway)
· Officially rated within 11lbs of top weight X
· Finished in first 3 on one or both of last two starts X
· Ran in a class 3 or better handicap chase over 3M+ last time X
· Won over 3M+ X
· 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chaser (or finished in first 5 in 2011 JLT H’cap Chase) X
· Run in 1 to 8 handicap chases (won no more than 2)
· Ridden by a jockey with no claim (R Burton or R Harding) ??
· Trained by N Henderson, D McCain, D Pipe, F Murphy or D Hughes


Meets 7/10 trends, possible more depending on wat happens!


Form at Cheltenham from latest first - PU-2-1-1-4-5-10

Form on good/soft or better - 2-PU-3-4-1-3-1-4

Ignoring soft ground which he doesnt like - last 4 runs at Chelt when good to soft or better 2-1-1-4

In October off a mark of 137 - jumped and travelled well when just beaten by the in form Balthazar King, showed great battling qualities when passed to keep going too i thought

The Nov 11 - easily won a v competitive hcap off 135 with the Hennessy winner (2weeks later) in Carruthers 14l behind in 3rd

Was 4th in this race in 2011 behind runaway winner Junior but is a much improved horse now, dont know why he didnt run last year tbh though

But given he loves the course, will relish better ground and well proven over 3m+, dropped 2lbs for run lto wen ground was massively against him and only 2lbs higher than wen 2nd here in Oct in a competitive race! John Thomas McNamara is due back from injury this weekend and has ridden this fella before and i would be hoping they will link up again goven the quote below from today..

"I'm also riding one for Jonjo in the Kim Muir but I'm not sure which. Alan (Berry) will ride one and I'll ride the other. I'm riding at a point-to-point this weekend. I didn't want it to be a race against time before Cheltenham so I'm going back this weekend." 

Given the doubts about the likely festival targets of those towards the top of the market, this race could cut up a lot between now and the day and 20/1 for Galaxy Rock e/w looks a decent investment.

Coral Cup

Minella Class 50/1 ew Paddy Power NRNB

One of a more speculative one but at 50/1 worth a poke ew

Well worth a watch of his race over 3m1f in a bog lto - was wide all the way and giving away ground but what was massively eyecatching was the amount of ground he made up from miles back on the bridle between 4 out and 3 out b4 folding very late on after somehow looking in with a chance of a place from nowhere!

His only entry is here and mark has dropped from 144 to 132 over hurdles and must b very close to being well handicapped now again

This is a horse who has bags of backclass including


« 1 First Lieutenant (IRE) 7/1 6 11-7 M F Morris 142 * * »
Davy Russell
Chased leaders, ridden from 2 out, not much room last, 2 lengths down on leader soon after, rallied gamely under pressure run-in, led last stride (op 13-2)
« 2 shd Rock On Ruby (IRE) 13/2 6 11-7 t Paul Nicholls 147 * * »
Daryl Jacob
In touch, good headway to chase leaders 2 out, ridden and 1 length down when left with 2 lengths lead last, stayed on well under pressure, caught last stride (op 15-2)
« 3 4½ So Young (FR) 2/1F 5 11-7 W P Mullins 140 * * »
R Walsh
Held up towards rear but in touch, good headway to chase leaders 2 out, staying on to press for 2nd when blundered last, soon outpaced by leading duo but kept on well for 3rd (tchd 9-4 in places)
« 4 2¼ Oscars Well (IRE) 4/1 6 11-7 Mrs John Harrington 147 * * »
Robbie Power
Took keen hold, raced in touch, headway to challenge 2 out, led soon after, 1 length lead and staying on when mistake and sprawled badly last, not recover (op 7-2)
« 5 1½ Megastar 16/1 6 11-7 Gary Moore 141 * * »
Jamie Moore
In rear and not fluent 2nd and 3rd, headway 2 out, soon ridden and never reached leaders, not fluent last, kept on run-in
« 6 nse Minella Class (IRE) 10/1 6 11-7 Nicky Henderson 148 * * »
Barry Geraghty
Tracked leaders, slight lead after 3 out, ridden last and soon headed, weakened approaching last (op 12-1)


Has a failed time as a chaser to overcome but so did Oscara Dara who the stable landed a big hcap with!

Has been 2nd to Peddlers Cross over fences and was travelling very well when falling at the 10th when falling against Cue Card, For Non Stop and Walkon, and went off fav versus Cristal Bonus when pulled up after jumping went to pot nto

Won on his 1st start this season in Nov in a Novice chase beating Theatrical star by an easy 2 1/2l - he beat Colour Squadron by 5l nto and is now rated 135
Arthurian Legend 1 1/3l back in 3rd rated 132 and was a close 2nd to Keppols Hill nto
Restless Harry 4l back in 4th won by 11l beating Tullamore Dew nto


This shows that he retains some quality and his mark has dropped to a very tempting 132 over hurdles, he has obviously had some problems but that win this season at least shows he retains some of his old ability and the better ground and pace at Chelt could see him surprise a few at a very big price if getting in!

County Hurdle

Ifandbutwhynot 20/1 ew Generally


Dont usually look at stats but seein it fits so many i'll chuck em in,

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 5 to 7 (ideally 5) X
· Carrying 10-10+ (not top weight) x
· Officially rated 130 to 140 X
· Finished in the first 3 last time out in last 70 days X
· Run at least 3 times this season & run in a handicap hurdle worth 16K+ X
· First or second season hurdlers X
· Run in 1 to 7 handicap hurdles X
· Won no more than 3 handicap hurdles (ideally won none) X
· Won a class 3 or higher hurdle X
· Finished in first 5 in Boylesports and/or Betfair H’cap Hurdles
· Tends to be held up X
· Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland

Meets 10/12 of the trends

12Mar13 1:30 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Grade 1

13Mar13 2:06 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle) Grade 1

15Mar13 2:08 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3

15Mar13 4:43 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle


Has 4 entries but the 2 novice races are completely out surely and all of his races have been over 2m or 2m1 so it must be county hurdle you would think.

Seemed to need his first run of the season when a beaten fav in 3rd but as it turns out it was 2 130+ rated horses in front so prob nt as bad a run as it was thought at the time!

Then in a Novice hurdle at Newcastle on g/s beat the since very impressive and now 142 rated Eduard(2 wide margin wins and a close 3rd behind Melodic Rendevouz since), jumped and travelled well and showed guts to hold on at the finish!

Followed up that win next time out here at Chelt on soft ground(off 117) when giving 5lbs and an emphatic beating to Taneko Emery(off 112). Was hampered twice in that race and still was a very easy winner.

-Form has since been boosted massively with the 2nd Tameko Emery winning very easily on his next 2 runs and argubaly should have won the Welsh Champion hurdle and is now rated 141

-And Brick Red in 6th beaten 16l by Ifandbutwhynot giving away 1lb winning its next 3 starts and finishing 2nd in a G2 last weekend and now rated 146

Went on to go off favourite in a very warm Sandown Listed Hurdle off 130 next time out but disappointed when finishing 9th of 12 but i think it can be worth forgiving that run as the ground was very tacky and horses that were held up finished 7/8/9 so it was nt easy to come from the back

Bounced back to form last week with an easy win at Mussellburgh off 130, travelled well and quickened when asked to win by nearly 3l from Ultimate giving him 7lbs(Ultimate who was beat 8l by Swing Bowler off levels123 (And Swing Bowler now rated 138) Would probably put Ifbutandwhynot just ahead of it on revised ratings. A 5lb rise for last win does nt seem harsh and Timmy Murphy feels a race like the County will suit

Murphy told Racing UK: "The key to him is if he settles. We slowed up mid-race and I was a lot handier than I wanted to be.

"I think all those competitive two-mile handicaps like the County Hurdle will be right up his street, he loves passing horses and I think he's better left-handed."

and i think there is still some room to play the off a mark of 135 given his form with horses now rated high 130s and 140+

There is a slight worry he may not get in but represents a decent ew bet at 20/1 i think