Wednesday, September 3, 2014
**Potential Novice hurdlers of interest 14/15**
Some bumper performers of interest from last season that could be very interesting over hurdles this season - wont waste my time on Shaneshill, Black Hercules etc as we know all about them and everyone will be talking about them for months to come, shall try to find some that may be a bit lesser known and could pay their way for the season.
Investmentsuccess (IRE)
6-y-o (01Jan08 br g)
Oscar (IRE) (12.6f) — Miss Muppet (IRE) (Supreme Leader (12.5f))
Trainer Thomas Mullins
After race at Fairyhouse Mon, 21st Apr, 2014 (1st) Just greenness beat him at Cork. It is not his fault he didn't win before now. He is well bred and I expect him to go all the way to the top as a chaser. He is a half-brother to a good horse in Down In Neworleans (and Chomba Womba). Thomas Mullins
Ran a race full of promise on debut at Cork(2m hvy) behind multiple bumper winner Killer Crow when looking like the experience would do him the world of good finishing 3rd beat 4.5l.
He showed that to be the case when romping clear at Fairyhouse next time (2m g/y). He travelled powerfully throughout and easily took it up 1f out before being sent about his work and put the race to bed in a matter of strides romping clear to win by 7l.
2nd - Draco - maiden hurdle winner since and decent placed form
3rd - Marinero - won a bumper next time out
4th - Bosman Rule - bumper winner since
So the form has a bit of substance to it given the exploits of those in behind and i think the summer could have done him the world of good given he's still green/babyish and could be one to keep onside in novice hurdles next season from a stable that could fly under the radar against more fashionable sorts.
Thistlecrack
6-y-o (29Mar08 b g)
Kayf Tara (13.8f) — Ardstown (Ardross (12.6f))
Trainer Colin Tizzard
No trainer quotes
Made an encouraging debut when a staying on 3rd in April '13 but was'nt seen for a year then before reappearing in April at Wincanton in what looked a fair bumper for the time of the year.
He looks a lovely big horse and raced keen enough throughout before taking it up turning in. Jockey let out a bit of rein and he galloped all the way to the line under hands and heels riding while still looking about and showing signs of greeness.
Neck or Nothing in 2nd is a very decent yardstick - impressive winner of a Punchestown bumper and was running a very big race at the Chelt November meeting in a listed bumper before jumping the path and losing all momentum. Finished midfield in the Cheltenham equivalent too so sets a decent standard.
Considering Thistlecrack beat him by an easy 3l and they pulled 11l clear of the 3rd, it could prove decent form given the winner had the look of a horse that would be a lot wiser for runs.
No More Heroes (IRE)
Race record
5-y-o (01Jan09 br g)
Presenting (13.8f) — What A Breeze (IRE) (Naheez (USA) (12.9f))
Trainer Gordon Elliott
After race at Leopardstown Fri, 27th Dec, 2013 (1st) He is a big three mile chaser down the road. He may go for a winners bumper, but really we will have to try and mind him. Gordon Elliott
Wed, 13th Nov, 2013 "He's a nice horse that ran well on his first start over hurdles but is a real staying chaser in the making." Gordon Elliott
-"He's a horse for two years down the road.
"He's a nice big galloping horse and he looked like he was going best at the line.
"All he does is stay. He's very relaxed and nothing fazes him at home.
"He'll go hurdling next season but we'll be minding him again then," was Elliott's summation in the aftermath.
Yet another in the long line of Gigginstown potentially top class staying chasers for the future. Impressive winner of a point to point at Dromohane in April last year travelling best throughout and quickening clear after the last to win by an impressive 5l. What makes this victory even more impressive is the horses in behind and what they have done since. Not many point to points will have worked out as well as this:
2nd - Battle Born - 2 time bumper winner for Charlie Longsdon
3rd - Powerstown Dreams - bumper winner for Steve Gollings
4th - Fort Worth - bumper winner for Johnjo O Neill
5th - Royal Player - Maiden and Novice hurdle winner for Philip Hobbs
6th - Voyage of Newyork - wide margin ptp winner next time and Novice hurdle winner for Lucinda Russell
Even 3 of the pulled up horses won point to points shortly after so it looks a well above average point.
No More Heroes made his debut in a maiden hurdle at Downpatrick and shaped with a great deal of promise when behind G2 Novice hurdle placed Gilt Shadow. Getting outpaced before keeping on well into 4th over 2m, a trip that would no doubt have been well short of his optimum.
Reverted to bumpers next time when stepped up to 2m4f on soft ground which would have been much more his trip and he made no mistake, travelling well throughout before taking it up 2f out and powering clear to win by a facile 39l over Bosman Rules(a winner since). This pointed him out as a horse with a massive engine and one to follow for the seasons ahead.
Returned at Naas in February(2m3f sft/hvy) in what looked a decent bumper versus 2 previous bumper winners in the shape of Milsean and Grand Partner. He closed up to join the leader 3f out before taking it up at the furlong pole before finding plenty and pulling away to win by 2.25l from Milsean. He found plenty off the bridle and left the impression the further he goes the better he will be.
2nd Milsean - won a bumper by 25l next time
3rd - Grand Partner - maiden hurdle and novice hurdle winner since
The fact he is only a 5yo, the summer will no doubt have done him the world of good and will be a real force to be reckoned with in staying novice hurdles throughout the winter.
Whether he would be a festival horse would have to be up for debate given trainer comments and minding him for the future but i have no doubt he will comfortable pay his was through the winter months.
Westhorpe (IRE)
5-y-o (24Mar09 b g)
Westerner (9.3f) — Chantoue Royale (FR) (Cadoudal (FR ) (18.0f))
Trainer W P Mullins
Mullins disclosed: "He shows plenty. The owner's grandson rode him in a piece of work the other day and told us he was a fair sort.
"He should be old enough to have a licence the next time he runs.
"Aubrey will now be looking forward to claiming seven off him in a winners' bumper.
"We'll talk to the owner (about Cheltenham). It is an option but he was bought for Aubrey to ride.
"Patrick said he got very unbalanced from idling in front there." (GC & EM)
Very nice winner first time out at Fairyhouse (2m sft/hvy) when taking it up 2f out and staying well all the way to the line. Him and the 2nd pulled 18l clear of the 3rd and the form of the bumper looks decent.
2nd Fine Article - won a bumper next time out and far from disgraced when 4th in the G1 Punchestown bumper beaten just 8l
3rd Officer Cadet - won a bumper next time out
He was mentioned as one of 3 in the Willie Mullins bumper team for the Cheltenham Festival shortly before the race but never turned up. Whether it was due to them wanting to give him more time to mature and look after him or whether he had a small setback i dont know.
No doubt he will have more illustrous stablemates ahead of him in the betting markets for the big spring festivals but one thing is for sure, if he has progressed again from that debut as he should have, he could have a bright future in novice hurdles for the season ahead.
Royal Caviar (IRE)
6-y-o (31Mar08 b g)
Vinnie Roe (IRE) (12.0f) — Blackwater Babe (IRE) (Arctic Lord (11.7f))
Trainer W P Mullins
After race at Fairyhouse Wed, 20th Nov, 2013 (1st) He's a fine big chasing type, and I was pleased that he could go on that ground because it's turned quite slow. On his pedigree I thought he might want better ground but he's such a strong horse he handled that. I'd imagine he'll go for a winners' bumper. Patrick said he pulled quite hard and was afraid that he didn't settle well enough but he showed plenty of toe. W P Mullins
Navan:"The time was good and anytime you go under four minutes means you have a nice type," said Ireland's champion trainer, who was completing a 4-1 treble on the card.
"He's a fine big chasing type and he was long odds-on so we felt that there was no point giving up ground and we decided to ride him more positively than we did at Fairyhouse [last month].
"The plan before today was to keep him in bumpers, but we'll have to see now after that. I've a feeling the second is a lot better than we gave him credit for. He looked a lovely horse in the parade ring."
Royal Caviar, a wide margin ptp on his only start previously jumped to the head of the Champion Bumper betting after what was a massively impressive debut success at Fairyhouse (2m2f sft). Travelled very well behind the leaders before taking it up late on to cruise away to a 6.5l success. The manner of the victory suggested he would be going on to much bigger things in the future and would be one to keep onside long term.
Was next seen at Navan when sent off a very prohibitive 1/4 shot to land a Grade 2 bumper (2m y/s) and was surprisingly made pull out all the stops to beat Fine Rightly (a race which he lost on appeal a week later and the placings were reversed). He cruised up alongside as they turned in and looked the winner all the way up the straight but just struggled to quicken when first asked, even tho he did go onto win by over 2l(after cutting the eventual 2nd off) but i have no doubt as the trainer says above that he will be a much better horse on nicer ground as we saw in his ptp.
A lot of people were disappointed by that run, with the fact he had to come off the bridle at all but that is quite shortsighted and they underestimated the quality of horse he was in against.
2nd(promoted 1st) Fine Rightly - a 2 time novice hurdle winner since and rated 134
3rd Desertmore Stream - a 3 time hurdle winner since and rated 135
So as we go on the race looks alot stronger than it did at the time. This was the last time we saw him as he never made it to Cheltenham and was roughed off for the season due to a setback. Hopefully he is over that and will be one to leave his mark over hurdles before no doubt becoming a better chaser again.
Tell Us More (IRE)
5-y-o (01Jan09 b g)
Scorpion (IRE) (12.5f) — Zara´s Victory (IRE) (Old Vic (13.0f))
Trainer W P Mullins
After race at Gowran Park Sat, 8th Mar, 2014 (1st) Normally with a horse like this you would wait until the autumn but we will see if there is something similar for him. He won nicely and to change yards and do that was very impressive. There was lots of talk about him at the sales and I was pleased to get him. W P Mullins
Bought for 290k at the sales after an impressive point to point win that has to be seen to be believed, he was almost knocked over and stopped to a walk trying to avoid a dolled off fence 2 out and still got up to win easily. A video of the race below
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgjiRpOF1f4&feature=youtu.be
Harold Kirk:"He has been bought for an existing client and will go into training with Willie Mullins," said Kirk. "He's a gorgeous horse - today's standout - and he won his point very well. I wasn't there when he won, but the right people were on the phone telling me we should try and get him.
"He's by an exciting young sire and he would be the first one we've had by him. He should make a smashing chaser - he's a big-framed, scopey type."
He then made his debut for Willie Mullins in a bumper in March at Gowran (2m2f sft) led turning in and eased clear to win in a hack canter. The form of the race is questionable as to what he beat but he could not have done it any more impressively. He is probably the one i am most looking forward to seeing again as he really is in the "could be anything category.
Simon Squirrel (IRE)
4-y-o (30Mar10 b g)
Robin Des Champs (FR) — Misty Heather (IRE) (Oscar (IRE) (12.6f))
Trainer Charlie Brooks(Now trained by Paul Nicholls and owned by the Wylies)
05 April 2014
A brilliant brilliant day, Simon Squirrel did as we expected and won the bumper comfortably at Chepstow. It was very encouraging to hear Liam Treadwell tell us there is so much more to come from him and that the penny was only dropping as he approached the line. Liam gave him a smashing ride.. Simon Squirrel has a bright future ahead of him.
Was very hard not to be taken by this one on debut - travelled well to challenge up the straight and powered clear to put the race to bed. Was nt stopping at the line and was still having a look around late on.
Second has nt been seen out since but Sidbury Hill in 3rd had finished 4l second to Josses Hill on his preious run and was plenty of porevious winners in here so form may not be too shabby.
Trainer would not be renowned for his first time out winners either(as far as i can see this is his first) so must be every hope Simon Squirrel has a lot of improvement to come in due course.
Has since been purchased by the Wylies and has been sent to Paul Nicholls which is a very noteworthy move and one that really catches the eye.
A Vos Gardes (FR)
4-y-o (25Apr10 b g)
Kapgarde (FR) — Miscia Nera (FR) (Panoramic (9.7f))
Trainer Charlie Longsdon
15Feb14 Ascot ( 16 Sft ,RPR118 )
He probably hit the front too soon but he is a grand horse. He´ll probably miss Cheltenham and have one run somewhere small before turning him out. - Charlie Longsdon, trainer.
13Nov13 Bangor-on-dee ( 17 Sft ,RPR98 )
Sixteen pounds is a massive pull. He´s a real baby but has a good attitude and we´ll give him one more run and put him out in a field. : Charlie Longsdon, trainer
2/2 in bumpers for Charlie Longsdon and looked like a horse that was going to improve for time/runs.
Made his debut as a 3yo at Bangor in November (2m1f sft) and made it a winning one. Staying on strongly late on to beat Foryourinformation who came out and won nto. A Vos Garde was in receipt of 16lbs from the field this day but it was a v encouraging debut none the less given he was just a 3yo.
Then was put away and returned at Ascot in February where he showed that he was still a big baby, hitting the front a furlong out and wandering all over the place but still going on to win by a length. Still a very green immature horse. The 4th from that Ascot bumper, Royal Vaction(beaten over 4l) ran a very respectable race in the Cheltenham bumper when a staying on 9th behind Silver Concorde so the form could be better than it looks.
Value At Risk
5-y-o (28May09 b g)
Kayf Tara (13.8f) — Miss Orchestra (IRE) (Orchestra (10.1f))
Trainer Philip Fenton
After race at Leopardstown Sun, 29th Dec, 2013 (1st) He's a beautiful horse and he really rose to the occasion today. The form of his Fairyhouse win was very good. It was different tactics today and he travelled better. He's another chaser in the making and I'd say we'll be looking at Fairyhouse or Punchestown rather than Cheltenham. Philip Fenton
After race at Fairyhouse Sun, 1st Dec, 2013 (1st) He looks like one for the future. He's a grand stamp of a horse. Next stop is Leopardstown all being well if it doesn't come too soon. He's only four and we don't want to rush him. He done it the hard way today and it's a good sign of a horse. He probably wants soft ground . he's a big horse and he's got big feet. We pulled him out at Punchestown, that was too dry, and we ended up running here on ground that was probably better. He looks a nice horse . he's a good jumper and he's a chaser in the making. He could be a very good horse and we'll just stick to bumpers with him this season. I think Cheltenham would be on his agenda . that could be a way to ruin him! Philip Fenton
Looked a real one for the future from an early stage last season and bumper form looks absolutely rock solid.
Started off at then end of the season before at Punchestown when 2nd as a pretty unconsidered 20/1 shot in the market behind Very Wood (Albert Bartlett winner at Chelt) in a bumper and has the likes of Wiklow Brave and Western Boy in behind so it looks a strong piece of form. Was put away for the summer after this and brought back in the winter.
Arrived at Fairyhouse in December on comeback and made all to beat Windsor Park who is a 2 time bumper winner since so this looks good form.
4 weeks later once more over 2m at Leopardstown under a penalty he showed he could do it other ways, travelling well to take it up 2f out before quickening and keeping the gallop up to the line.
2nd Draco - maiden hurdle winner since
3rd Fort Smith - Bumper winner since
Yes Sir Brian in 4th a decent yardstick as a bumper winner previously and placed form behind Wicklow Brave and Goldboy in bumpers and beat just 13l by Vautour in a maiden hurdle.
I am willing to forgive his Cheltenham run which was poor as i have no doubt it was nt the plan all along as per trainer quotes above and to be fair he was cut up completely 3 times in running which makes the result look worse. Things really didnt go his way from a 5f out in running.
He did go to Punchestown and show that Cheltenham run to be all wrong when running a close 3rd behind Shaneshill and Silver concorde in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper. Travelled well into the race from the back and kept going all the way up the straight to the line.
I know there is still a cloud hanging over his trainer but i feel this is a horse guaranteed to improve for time and we could see him step up on last seasons form again over hurdle this time round.
Altior
4-y-o (06May10 b g)
High Chaparral (IRE) (10.4f) — Monte Solaro (IRE) (Key Of Luck (USA) (9.4f))
Trainer Nicky Henderson
No Trainer quotes - did get a special mention from NJH last week on tv though
Could not have been more impressive when winning at Market Rasen first time up as a well backed 4/6 shot, so must have been showing plenty at home. They went a crawl early and he reluctantly had to go to the front and make the pace, but the manner in which he quickened clear in a matter of strides at the 3f pole was very eyecatching.
Hard to know what to make of the form as the 2nd has not been out since but its probably not up to much but he was so much better than the rest you'd be very confident he could handle to step up to a decent level.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
Paddy Power Scurry - The argument for Discussiontofollow!
Discussiontofollow - 18/1 Bet 365, 16/1 Generally
Thoroughly progressive on the AW during the winter, winning his maiden by 5l and 2 handicaps off 68 and 76.
Firstly off 68 at Wolves when winning comfortably from
- Lexis Hero (has won twice and been 2nd 4 times from 7 starts since)
- Go Far in 3rd has won 3 times since
- Powerful Pierre in 7th won 3 times since
Then at Kempton off a mark of 76 he won on the bridle from Absolutely So who was rated 83 (now 100) and smashed into 4/1 fav for the Wokingham last week off that mark. Who made a competitve handicap at Goodwood into a procession when winning by over 3l off a mark of 92.
Stepped up on that next time at Windsor when beaten just 1l in 3rd after bein trapped very wide in what has turned out to be a very decent race
Joeys Destiny just in front - 2nd has won since
Robot Boy 3/4l behind - 4th has won since
Blessington 1,1/2l behind - 5th has won since
Slip Sliding Away 3l behind - 8th has won since
Corporal Maddox 4,1/2l behind - 10th has won since
Links Drive Lady 16l behind - 15th has won twice since
Was drawn 15 at Windsor and got stuck very wide all the way and was quite keen the 1st half of the race as he tried to take him back to get cover. Had a lot of daylight turning in and had to do a lot of running on his own up the middle which would not have suited given the manner of his AW wins!
Has been risen 3lbs for that but thats fair given he was nt beaten far and the way the race has worked out is very positive and i think he can progress further up the ladder! Shane Kelly jocked up in the RP so assume this is the plan and can only see this price going one way.
Thoroughly progressive on the AW during the winter, winning his maiden by 5l and 2 handicaps off 68 and 76.
Firstly off 68 at Wolves when winning comfortably from
- Lexis Hero (has won twice and been 2nd 4 times from 7 starts since)
- Go Far in 3rd has won 3 times since
- Powerful Pierre in 7th won 3 times since
Then at Kempton off a mark of 76 he won on the bridle from Absolutely So who was rated 83 (now 100) and smashed into 4/1 fav for the Wokingham last week off that mark. Who made a competitve handicap at Goodwood into a procession when winning by over 3l off a mark of 92.
Stepped up on that next time at Windsor when beaten just 1l in 3rd after bein trapped very wide in what has turned out to be a very decent race
Joeys Destiny just in front - 2nd has won since
Robot Boy 3/4l behind - 4th has won since
Blessington 1,1/2l behind - 5th has won since
Slip Sliding Away 3l behind - 8th has won since
Corporal Maddox 4,1/2l behind - 10th has won since
Links Drive Lady 16l behind - 15th has won twice since
Was drawn 15 at Windsor and got stuck very wide all the way and was quite keen the 1st half of the race as he tried to take him back to get cover. Had a lot of daylight turning in and had to do a lot of running on his own up the middle which would not have suited given the manner of his AW wins!
Has been risen 3lbs for that but thats fair given he was nt beaten far and the way the race has worked out is very positive and i think he can progress further up the ladder! Shane Kelly jocked up in the RP so assume this is the plan and can only see this price going one way.
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
Northumberland Plate
The Main Contenders
Pique Sous 9/2
Highly impressive winner at Royal Ascot in the Queen Alexandra Stakes which probably puts him 8lbs+ well in here under a mandatory 5lbs penalty. Fast ground is very important to him and he should get that here. The price is very fair to be honest but i would have a big worry about him turning out again so quickly - its not an easy task trying to win two of the biggest staying prizes of the season in one week. He has also been known to throw in the odd disappointing performance, most notable when beaten twice at odds on behind Ted Veal and Marchese Marconi last summer in races you would have expected him to win.
If the same horse at Royal Ascot turns up though, they have it all to do to beat him.
Angel Gabrial 10/1
Solid performer last year over 10-12f - winning at Ascot before coming a very decent 6th in the John Smiths Cup beaten just 4l behind Danchai. But the step up in trip this season to 2m+ appears to be the making of him. Winning over 2miles at Ripon beating a very decent yardstick in Mubaraza (3rd when jt fav in this race last year) with 7l back to the 3rd Chocola who won next time out and Sizzler beaten 9l in 4th, was a very good 3rd in the Ascot stakes last week so the form has a rock solid look to it.
But the run that really has to catch everyones eye is the run at Chester last time, was keen throughout the race and sat last giving the leader what must have been 12-15l but it was the move at the 4f pole that is quite breathtaking. He passed the whole field wide on the outside and went from last to first turning in. I was v taken by this as he (1) had to quicken v strongly to pass the whole field (2) he was able to quicken away from them again when he met the straight and put 2/3l between him and the field. He was entitled to get very tired late on given the run he put in to get to the front but surprisingly ran all the way to the line when straightened after hanging off the rail. He also showed he improved from his 1st run at 2m+ by beating Mubaraza further than when they met at Ripon.
De Rigeur 14/1
Very progressive sort last season, in the process rising from an opening winning mark of 59 to ending the year on a mark of 95. This included winning a very competitive 2m handicap at Haydock off a mark of 86 by 1.5l from Sun Central with a wide gap back to the 3rd. Sun Central could nt have done more to frank that form winning the John Smiths Silver Cup off 4lbs higher next time and ending the season winning A Listed handicap off 108.
De Rigeur looked to be really out of sorts on his first 2 starts this season when being beaten 36l and 23l on his first two starts of the season, when being well fancied in the market on both occasions. Turned up at Newmarket last time then over 1m4f as an unconsidered 25/1 shot and bounced right back to form when winning from Duke of Clarence (close form with Duke of Edinburgh winner Arab Spring). Didnt have the clearest of runs through but powered home to win when getting in the clear. Still unexposed over 2m after having only 2 starts over the trip.
Suegioo 14/1
Chester Cup winner last time beating Angel Gabrial with a strong run down the outside. Improved for the step up in trip but i think he will struggle to confirm that form assuming Angel Gabrial is ridden with more restraint.
Van Percy 16/1
Easy winner of a 1m6f handicap at Newmarket last time and a 6lb rise looks very fair given the winning margin, That was a funny race though as they split so not sure id be taking the form too literally, but did have De Rigeur well behind. Has looked progressive and the step up to 2m could suit.
Nearly Caught 16/1
Has been highly tried after winning a handicap at Haydock off 85 in September. Beaten 4l in a Group 2 at Longchamp and lost his way after that finishing last in a handicap at Doncaster in his last start and starting this season by finishing last in a Group 3 at Newbury. But i think they could have been riding him wrong and making too much use of him, he showed last time that that could be the case when bouncing back to form with a good 2nd at Haydock last time when held up. He stayed on all the way to the line off 1lb lower and George Baker being jocked up again should mean similar tactics are employed here.
Earth Amber 16/1
A very consistent sort on the flat having come second in two listed races and second in a group 3 since coming from France. But has yet to win for new connections, tried over hurdles but didnt take to it - a 100 rating on the flat v a 113 rating over hurdles! Could rack up quite a few wins in that sphere if they get him to take to them!
Ran very well in April when second in a decent looking listed race at Nottingham over 1m6f off a mark of 92. (High Jinx over 3l behind in 3rd was 2nd to Brown Panther in a G3 last time). And then he went on to even better that effort when finishing 2nd to Tac De Boistron on his favoured soft ground in the G3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot having the likes of Missunited, Harris Tweed and Simenon well behind.
The price he has paid for his consistency though is his mark has risen from 88 to 100 without winning but should be thereabouts at the finish as he is never far away.
Oriental Fox 16/1
Beaten a short head in this race year (when he was my main bet of course!!) by Tominator. Proved that was no fluke by romping away with a Cesarewith trial at Newmarket off a mark of 99. And went on to run 6th in the real thing off a mark of 104 beat 6l after travelling well and not having the best of runs through. I must say it really caught my eye how he travelled in the Ascot gold Cup last week and was far from disgraced being beaten just 9l by Leading Light at the line.
Best of the rest
Dark Crusader 25/1
Probably the most interesting horse in the whole race, 3 wins in a row including a competitive handicap at York had seen her mark skyrocketing from 64 to 97. Was a very well backed favourite on her final start of the season at Ascot when going off at 5/4 in a strong race but was ultimately well beaten in last. Has been campaigned interestingly this season at trips well short of her best - 7f, 8f, 10f so looks like she may be lined up for a big pot somehwere over longer. And the form of her York win ties in favourable with De Rigeur on a line through Dashing Star. Very interesting contender if this is the plan.
Thomas Edison 16/1
Winner of his last 2 starts over 1m4f off 76 and 83. Has another 9lb rise to contend with here but has looked like a horse that had a big pot in him for a long time whether it will be over flat or hurdles. Beat Champagne Fever easily in a bumper and goes in the could be anything category even though im not sure he stays well enough for this.
Whiplash Willie 16/1
Missed nearly 3 years through injury but looked like he never missed a beat when winning on his comeback run over 1m6f at Salisbury off 93. Subsequently went on to finish 3rd behind Brown Panther at Sandown and now has a mark of 108 to contend with even though jockey of the moment Oisin Murphy does take 3lbs off.
Tropical Beat 25/1
Was off for almost a year last season before making his seasonal debut in September. Was a fair 2nd on that occasion before being stepped up in trip on his next 2 starts, On both occasions had no luck in running and chance was gone. 3rd behind Van Percy on seasonal debut this time and could be one to hit the frame if the gaps appear.
Totalize 20/1
Romped away with a 1m6f handicap 2 weeks ago at York, staying on strongly to win by 3 1/2l at the line from Eagle Rock. Goes on good ground but if rain was to arrive his price would crumble being one of the few that will relish a softer surface.
Repeater 25/1
Looked a horse that was bound for a decent win after a very eyecatching 3rd in the Doncaster Cup last season. Travelled like a dream before being outstayed the last 1/2f, but it has'nt really happened for him since, being well beaten on all 5 starts since and not always finding what it looks like he might. Obviously not an easy horse to win with but mark has dropped to 102 from 109 and if he was to find some of his old sparkle could give a decent run. Has nt won since September 2011 though and has been beaten off marks from 86 to 94 in the meantime before two good runs in the Doncaster Cup ruined his mark.
Conclusion - Difficult race as always to sort out and the draw could play a big part. But the question as always is wait for prices to contract further after decs tomorrow or try to nab some value before hand with the usual antepost risk of losing your stake. Angel Gabrial looks a certain runner and can only see his price going one way and would expect him to be a very strong 2nd favourite at off time. He ran an unbelievable race last time and i was quite astonished he kept going all the way to the line after the massive move half a mile out to pass the field and looks one to stay on the right side of in these staying handicaps.
Dark Crusader is the most interesting horse in the race and that price of 25/1 is only going to go one way if she is a confirmed runner and could turn into a big gamble. Question is though, without knowing if she is intended, is it worth losing money Antepost? Probably not.
Oriental Fox proved to me last season he could be competitive off this kind of mark and runs this season have proved no different. 10lbs higher than when 2nd here last year and only 6lbs higher than when romping away with the Cesarewitch trial before coming 6th in the real thing off 1lb lower than his rating here, travelling well and getting hampered. He took a lot of racing last summer so hopefully the run in the Ascot Gold Cup where he travelled very well till they turned in wont have taken too much out of him.
Angel Gabrial 10/1 ew
Oriental Fox 16/1 ew
Pique Sous 9/2
Highly impressive winner at Royal Ascot in the Queen Alexandra Stakes which probably puts him 8lbs+ well in here under a mandatory 5lbs penalty. Fast ground is very important to him and he should get that here. The price is very fair to be honest but i would have a big worry about him turning out again so quickly - its not an easy task trying to win two of the biggest staying prizes of the season in one week. He has also been known to throw in the odd disappointing performance, most notable when beaten twice at odds on behind Ted Veal and Marchese Marconi last summer in races you would have expected him to win.
If the same horse at Royal Ascot turns up though, they have it all to do to beat him.
Angel Gabrial 10/1
Solid performer last year over 10-12f - winning at Ascot before coming a very decent 6th in the John Smiths Cup beaten just 4l behind Danchai. But the step up in trip this season to 2m+ appears to be the making of him. Winning over 2miles at Ripon beating a very decent yardstick in Mubaraza (3rd when jt fav in this race last year) with 7l back to the 3rd Chocola who won next time out and Sizzler beaten 9l in 4th, was a very good 3rd in the Ascot stakes last week so the form has a rock solid look to it.
But the run that really has to catch everyones eye is the run at Chester last time, was keen throughout the race and sat last giving the leader what must have been 12-15l but it was the move at the 4f pole that is quite breathtaking. He passed the whole field wide on the outside and went from last to first turning in. I was v taken by this as he (1) had to quicken v strongly to pass the whole field (2) he was able to quicken away from them again when he met the straight and put 2/3l between him and the field. He was entitled to get very tired late on given the run he put in to get to the front but surprisingly ran all the way to the line when straightened after hanging off the rail. He also showed he improved from his 1st run at 2m+ by beating Mubaraza further than when they met at Ripon.
De Rigeur 14/1
Very progressive sort last season, in the process rising from an opening winning mark of 59 to ending the year on a mark of 95. This included winning a very competitive 2m handicap at Haydock off a mark of 86 by 1.5l from Sun Central with a wide gap back to the 3rd. Sun Central could nt have done more to frank that form winning the John Smiths Silver Cup off 4lbs higher next time and ending the season winning A Listed handicap off 108.
De Rigeur looked to be really out of sorts on his first 2 starts this season when being beaten 36l and 23l on his first two starts of the season, when being well fancied in the market on both occasions. Turned up at Newmarket last time then over 1m4f as an unconsidered 25/1 shot and bounced right back to form when winning from Duke of Clarence (close form with Duke of Edinburgh winner Arab Spring). Didnt have the clearest of runs through but powered home to win when getting in the clear. Still unexposed over 2m after having only 2 starts over the trip.
Suegioo 14/1
Chester Cup winner last time beating Angel Gabrial with a strong run down the outside. Improved for the step up in trip but i think he will struggle to confirm that form assuming Angel Gabrial is ridden with more restraint.
Van Percy 16/1
Easy winner of a 1m6f handicap at Newmarket last time and a 6lb rise looks very fair given the winning margin, That was a funny race though as they split so not sure id be taking the form too literally, but did have De Rigeur well behind. Has looked progressive and the step up to 2m could suit.
Nearly Caught 16/1
Has been highly tried after winning a handicap at Haydock off 85 in September. Beaten 4l in a Group 2 at Longchamp and lost his way after that finishing last in a handicap at Doncaster in his last start and starting this season by finishing last in a Group 3 at Newbury. But i think they could have been riding him wrong and making too much use of him, he showed last time that that could be the case when bouncing back to form with a good 2nd at Haydock last time when held up. He stayed on all the way to the line off 1lb lower and George Baker being jocked up again should mean similar tactics are employed here.
Earth Amber 16/1
A very consistent sort on the flat having come second in two listed races and second in a group 3 since coming from France. But has yet to win for new connections, tried over hurdles but didnt take to it - a 100 rating on the flat v a 113 rating over hurdles! Could rack up quite a few wins in that sphere if they get him to take to them!
Ran very well in April when second in a decent looking listed race at Nottingham over 1m6f off a mark of 92. (High Jinx over 3l behind in 3rd was 2nd to Brown Panther in a G3 last time). And then he went on to even better that effort when finishing 2nd to Tac De Boistron on his favoured soft ground in the G3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot having the likes of Missunited, Harris Tweed and Simenon well behind.
The price he has paid for his consistency though is his mark has risen from 88 to 100 without winning but should be thereabouts at the finish as he is never far away.
Oriental Fox 16/1
Beaten a short head in this race year (when he was my main bet of course!!) by Tominator. Proved that was no fluke by romping away with a Cesarewith trial at Newmarket off a mark of 99. And went on to run 6th in the real thing off a mark of 104 beat 6l after travelling well and not having the best of runs through. I must say it really caught my eye how he travelled in the Ascot gold Cup last week and was far from disgraced being beaten just 9l by Leading Light at the line.
Best of the rest
Dark Crusader 25/1
Probably the most interesting horse in the whole race, 3 wins in a row including a competitive handicap at York had seen her mark skyrocketing from 64 to 97. Was a very well backed favourite on her final start of the season at Ascot when going off at 5/4 in a strong race but was ultimately well beaten in last. Has been campaigned interestingly this season at trips well short of her best - 7f, 8f, 10f so looks like she may be lined up for a big pot somehwere over longer. And the form of her York win ties in favourable with De Rigeur on a line through Dashing Star. Very interesting contender if this is the plan.
Thomas Edison 16/1
Winner of his last 2 starts over 1m4f off 76 and 83. Has another 9lb rise to contend with here but has looked like a horse that had a big pot in him for a long time whether it will be over flat or hurdles. Beat Champagne Fever easily in a bumper and goes in the could be anything category even though im not sure he stays well enough for this.
Whiplash Willie 16/1
Missed nearly 3 years through injury but looked like he never missed a beat when winning on his comeback run over 1m6f at Salisbury off 93. Subsequently went on to finish 3rd behind Brown Panther at Sandown and now has a mark of 108 to contend with even though jockey of the moment Oisin Murphy does take 3lbs off.
Tropical Beat 25/1
Was off for almost a year last season before making his seasonal debut in September. Was a fair 2nd on that occasion before being stepped up in trip on his next 2 starts, On both occasions had no luck in running and chance was gone. 3rd behind Van Percy on seasonal debut this time and could be one to hit the frame if the gaps appear.
Totalize 20/1
Romped away with a 1m6f handicap 2 weeks ago at York, staying on strongly to win by 3 1/2l at the line from Eagle Rock. Goes on good ground but if rain was to arrive his price would crumble being one of the few that will relish a softer surface.
Repeater 25/1
Looked a horse that was bound for a decent win after a very eyecatching 3rd in the Doncaster Cup last season. Travelled like a dream before being outstayed the last 1/2f, but it has'nt really happened for him since, being well beaten on all 5 starts since and not always finding what it looks like he might. Obviously not an easy horse to win with but mark has dropped to 102 from 109 and if he was to find some of his old sparkle could give a decent run. Has nt won since September 2011 though and has been beaten off marks from 86 to 94 in the meantime before two good runs in the Doncaster Cup ruined his mark.
Conclusion - Difficult race as always to sort out and the draw could play a big part. But the question as always is wait for prices to contract further after decs tomorrow or try to nab some value before hand with the usual antepost risk of losing your stake. Angel Gabrial looks a certain runner and can only see his price going one way and would expect him to be a very strong 2nd favourite at off time. He ran an unbelievable race last time and i was quite astonished he kept going all the way to the line after the massive move half a mile out to pass the field and looks one to stay on the right side of in these staying handicaps.
Dark Crusader is the most interesting horse in the race and that price of 25/1 is only going to go one way if she is a confirmed runner and could turn into a big gamble. Question is though, without knowing if she is intended, is it worth losing money Antepost? Probably not.
Oriental Fox proved to me last season he could be competitive off this kind of mark and runs this season have proved no different. 10lbs higher than when 2nd here last year and only 6lbs higher than when romping away with the Cesarewitch trial before coming 6th in the real thing off 1lb lower than his rating here, travelling well and getting hampered. He took a lot of racing last summer so hopefully the run in the Ascot Gold Cup where he travelled very well till they turned in wont have taken too much out of him.
Angel Gabrial 10/1 ew
Oriental Fox 16/1 ew
Friday, January 24, 2014
Supreme Novices Hurdle 2014
The curtain raiser of the festival and this year it looks quite the puzzle to solve. Trying to judge festival targets, having to forgive disappointing runs and trying to take a view which side of the sea the novice form is stronger on! We are about six weeks away and its 10/1 the field which tells you how hard it is to get a handle on the race and find a standout.
Irving:
Current favourite in the betting and i know a lot of people that like this one. He has done nothing wrong in his three starts but i am just not convinced about the form of his wins. Only one horse has come out and won from his three races.
December Ascot:
-Prince Siegfried (who was probably going to be second but was still beside the winner)was alongside last time when falling at the last was well beat in the Tolworth by 22l when last of 6 behind Royal Boy
-Spash of Ginge who was 6l behind in third was beat 16l by Deputy Dan next time out
November Ascot:
-A Hares Breath(getting 5lbs) was second beaten 4l(first start of the season) was beaten 9l in fourth by Josses Hill next time out
-Fond Memory (getting 5lbs) was fourth beaten 8l and was beaten 30+ by Ballyalton next time out.
November Taunton:
-Cup Final 4l back in second not been since through injury but was beaten further by the Skyfarmer the time before
-Magic Money 8l back in third was beaten out of sight in a handicap off 106 next time out.
At the moment he has of course won all his races easily and hard to know how good he is, but the quality of what he has beaten, makes me really question the form. His next outing is in the betfair hurdle and we will know a lot more about him then and will be a deserving favourite if he goes close off a mark of 143.
Vautour
Opinions ore divided on this one as he looked sure to be Willie Mullins' first string here before running last time. All the money on the run up to his race was for him to win this. His price varies from 7/1 to 12/1 with the bookmakers and even they are struggling to get a grasp on him. I think there has been a very negative view taken of his win last time due to the second being handled by unfashionable connections. But think it is a lot better than people are giving him credit for.
He easily won his maiden hurdle first time of asking for the stable when cantering clear of subsequent 15l winner Lieutenant Colonel at Navan over 2m.
After than run he went off at the prohibitive odds of 1/4 to win the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novices hurdle at Navan and win he did but not in the fashion many expected. He was made work hard and had to gallop all the way to the line to beat Western Boy and those two pulled 11 lengths clear of the third (who was beaten close to the same distance in the Grade1 Royal Bond) up the straight.
Just to put it into perspective - Western Boy won nicely on his 2 previous runs.
Won his bumper at Thurles by 2 1/2l from Mm Dazzler who won next time out by 5l.
Won what looked a very competitive maiden hurdle at Leopardstown going away by 3 1/2l.
Kylestyle in 2nd won easily next time out
Sizing Codelco beat 10l in 6th won next time out
The Winkler beat 21l in 10th won next time out
Add to that the 3rd and 4th - 3rd: Daneking argubaly would have won next time without a very bad mistake and 4th: Chancol was going very well next time out and looked the winner when coming down
Overall his form has a decent look to it and think many have underrated this formline due to the price Vautour went off on the day and expecting him to win easier. To my mind he just met a very decent rival on the day and showed he can battle when required. But at 12/1, i cant say he makes much appeal from an Antepost point of view as i dont think he will be a whole lot shorter if turning up here on the day.
Josses Hill:
Two out of three for his new stable since being purchased after his debut second behind Faugheen. Easily winning his bumper and maiden hurdle and looked one that would improve for the experience. Looked very green when winning his bumper but showed that experience did him the world of good when looking a lot more professional when easily winning his maiden hurdle at Newbury.
-Tiqris 4l back 3rd won easily last weekend.
Then he went to the Tolworth as the stable first string and stepped up on that form again when just going down in the final strides to his stablemate Royal Boy. But once more, as with some of the english formlines its hard to get a grasp on it. The Liquidator who was a well backed favourite clearly didnt run his race as he stopped like he was shot turning in. Garde La Victoire was keen and didn't get home in the ground. Upazo who would'nt be next or near the top of Willie Mullins' Novice hurdle ranks was 3rd but the front 2 did pull 11l clear of him.Was it a case of the front 2 handling the soft ground and others not handling it? Royal Boy was proven over further and in the end it was stamina won the day for him. I would nt rule out Josses Hill and he would probably be at the top of the english 2m novices for me. Seems to be improving with each run and will be aimed here. 14/1 is a fair price for those who like him.
West Wizard;
Antepost favourite for the race most of the autumn after being shouted from the rooftops by connections.
Went off an odds on favourite on debut at Kempton in March when gliding to a effortless 6 lengths victory over
-The Pirates Queen - won next time out and second in a listed hurdle last time
-The Skyfarmer 8l behind in 3rd won his next 4 starts and is now rated 140
Was then put away for the summer to allow him to mature and fill out his frame more. He came out then in November in a maiden hurdle at Kempton where he went off an unbackable 1/6 shot but things didn't go to plan and he was beaten from a long way out and was a well held second behind Sgt Reckless. Nicky Hendersons horses were not running well at that time and i would be very confident he is much better than that as he and Barry Geraghty know a good one when they see it and really like this fella. We did get an update last week that the horse is fine and they are waiting for better ground before letting him run. But the big break he has had, coupled with his lack of experience doesnt entile him to be 5th favourite at this stage of the season.
Valseur Lido:
Probably the hardest horse in the field to get a handle on - has to be put in the "could be anything" category. Effortless winner of both his starts since coming over from France. Hasn't had to come out of second gear on both occasions, jumped and travelled like a very good horse but its impossible to judge the form. All his runs have been on bottomless ground too which would be a slight worry come March. Has an entry in the Deloitte and we may know a lot more about him then but could be one kept at home with the future in mind?
Others of note:
Western Boy - discussed above with Vautour. Could be overlooked if travelling over and would definitely be interesting ew at a price. Form has worked out well
Royal Boy: Being aimed at the Neptune
Zamdy Man: 3/3 this year and has improved massively for the summer on his back. Disposed of the expensive David Pipe purchase Un Temps Pour Tout last weekend in the Supreme trial at Haydock. Form of his Listed win at Haydock in November looks solid too - The second (who he gave 8lbs to) won by 4 1/2l next time out. Could be argued he is overpriced but would be very disappointing if he was good enough to win a Supreme.
The Liquidator: Grade 1 bumper winner at Punchestown to end last season in a race that has produced numerous winners. Effortless winner of his first two hurdle starts including a 15l demolition of Sea Lord at Cheltenham who is a very decent yardstick. Went off a very well backed favourite for the Tolworth but disappointed massively when beat a long way out. They still have not got to the bottom of what went wrong and that would be a worry and would have to see him fit and well on the track again before backing him Antepost.
Red Sherlock: Very likeable sort who is unbeaten in 5 starts. Last 2 wins have been over 2m4f and 2m5f and is entered in the Neptune trial tomorrow at Cheltenham so you would think he will be aimed at the longer race.
Aklan: Very decent on the flat and an easy winner on hurdles debut, but had absolutely nothing to beat when Chancol came to grief.
First Mohican: 106 rated on the flat and now with Alan King. Not been seen over a hurdle in public yet and must be a doubt he will make the gig in March.
Moyle Park: A horse i really like but does himself no favours by being extremely keen in his races. 2/2 in bumpers and a very easy winner of his maiden hurdle (2nd won easily last week). And he looked the winner turning in, when last seen in the Future Champions Grade 1 at Leopardstown before fading to third. Ruby said he pulled too hard and had nothing left. A fast run 2m in the Supreme could bring out the best in him if he turns up on the day but that must be questionable with the owner having Vautour also.
Wilde Blue Yonder: Would arguably be 3/3 this season without falling at the last when last seen. Very gutsy horse who keeps finding when asked. Had Tiqris back in 3rd when winning his maiden hurdle(form ties in with Josses Hill) and Fascino Rustico 20l back in 5th who was just beaten by Amore Alto next time and had Sgt Reckless behind(form with West Wizard) Could be one for the Neptune maybe but where ever he runs he will run a nice race but would like to see a confidence booster first after the fall last time.
And finally onto the selections! I have personally taken the view that the Irish form is stronger. Form of the Grade 1 races is probably not as strong as previous years but i still think it is the best form on offer in what looks a wide open year in the 2m Novice division.
The Tullow Tank:
Has really come to himself this year after needing time to mature. Finished last season by winning a bumper in very eyecatching fashion, travelling well and sprinting clear to win by 9l
-Real Steel in 2nd won on his hurdles debut by 17l
-Timesremembered in 3rd was sold to england and won his 1st 2 starts there including an impressive 6l win in the Persian War at Chepstow before being 2nd to Creepy in a Neptune trial and also 2nd in the Grade 1 Challow to Captain Cutter
The Tullow Tank was then put away for the summer to "grow up" as Philip Fenton put it and he started off this season as he let off. He found a bit of trouble in running 2 out but really quickened to beat Turnandgo who went off a well backed 8/11 favourite on the back of 2 long distance bumper wins including a 9l win over Captain Cutter.
He was then stepped up to Grade 1 class in the Royal Bond Novices hurdle over 2m on good/yielding ground, which was the quickest ground he encountered so far on the racecourse. He jumped and travelled well and showed he can knuckle down to win when getting the better of Renetti late on.
-Renetti was in the process of hosing up at Limerick when falling 2 out
-Very Wood 7l back in 5th was a fast finishing 3l third to Briar Hill next time out
But most behind haven't been seen since.
Then The Tullow Tank turned up in the Paddy Power Grade 1 Future Champions Novices Hurdle and put up his most impressive performance. Easily winning under hands and heels riding and still looking a baby with his ears pricked at the last. He is a dual Grade 1 winner at 2 miles in what so far looks an average Supreme Novices hurdle field. If he was trained by Willie Mullins what price would he be as a dual Grade 1 winner on the back of 4 straight wins? I would venture to say 4/1 maximum(given Vautour is 7s in places!). The Deloitte is going to tell us a lot more in 2 weeks and how interesting would it be if Faugheen turned up? I know there is those who think he is a Neptune horse but i dont see why they would want to step up 5f in trip when you are on a winning run at 2 miles. I know he has looked more of a stayer on his last 2 runs but i have put my take on it below.
Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle - Grade 1 (2m) Soft
Travelled very well to 2 out - actually took a pull before that he was going so well.
Think the jock got lower in the saddle to ensure he didn't get caught in a pocket, more than it being a case of urgency - you can see from the side on he was rowing along bare hands and heels, never had to go after him so could have been deceptive that he was flat out under pressure but i think that is no where near the truth. The minute he pulled him to the outer of Moyle Park and King of the Picts, the acceleration was instant under the minimum of asking. He passed them and went away in a matter of strides. He had his ears pricked coming to the last and Danny Mullins never reached for his stick which lets me believe there was loads left in the tank as he is a horse that finds under pressure.
Bar One Royal Bond Novices Hurdle - Grade 1 - (2m) Good/Yielding
This was proper good ground 2m race run at a decent clip. The Tullow Tank showed that he can handle the hustle and bustle too after gettin in a bit of a barging match down the back. Once more he quickened nicely to come out of the pack to the outer turnin in, to get a position which shows me he has tactical speed. He was travelling very well turning in to close up on the leader, but a slow jump 2 out where Rennetti pinged gifted that one a 3l lead but once more when the jock got lower in the saddle he quickened immediately and very nicely i thought to close the gap in a matter of strides. Although he was goin away at the line i dont think that screamed that a step up to 2m5f at Cheltenham is what he needs so would be very hopefull the Supreme is where he will turn up.
Sounds like the owner is leaning towards 2m campaign too but that could change next time, Barry Connell interview from during the week :
"He's not short of pace and you'd imagine a true-run two-mile race would be ideal. It will be interesting to see when he goes up to two and a quarter in the Deloitte, that will tell us a bit more.
Arctic Fire:
A horse that wont be on many peoples radar but he is a horse i really like but good ground is a must. Motionless winner first time out for the stable after being bought from France at Tipperary - gave weight and a beating to a solid yardstick in Enchanted Forest and Diyala in 3rd won a Novice hurdle since.
Would have won next time at Gowran Park when coming down, was full of running behind a wall of horses and clipped heels and came down.
But his real eyecatching run was his run in the Royal Bond behind The Tullow Tank when he arguably should have won. He was given way too much to do and made up a massive amount of ground up the straight, even more impressive as he was the only one to come from off the pace and he only went down by 1 1/2l at the line and was making ground hand over fist.
I think his last run in the Future Champions at Leopardstown can be written off as the ground was all wrong for him - Willie Mullins was interviewed on Attheraces the evening before and he said if there was any rain, Arctic fires chance would be gone and of course it proceeded to spill all night long and turned into a slog and that stuck in my head since. He has now got a mark of 138 which could be very interesting if they decided to travel over for a good ground betfair hurdle at Newbury but as with all Mullins handicap horses, we wont know till the final declarations!
So rightly or wrongly i have taken a view that the irish form is slightly better at this stage. The Deloitte is going to be an extremely informative race in 2 weeks and i reckon we will have some big market changes by the time that and the betfair hurdle have passed. The Tullow Tank is a thoroughly likeable sort, travels well through his races and jumps for fun. I think he possesses speed for a Supreme even though plenty disagree with me but also finds under pressure and will keep going to the line which can be a big bonus in a Supreme (Champagne Fever, Al Ferof in recent years). And i don't think he is finished improving yet. Arctic Fire is a more speculative one but i think there is definitely a big race in him and when he gets some decent ground you will see a much better horse than last time.
Selections
The Tullow Tank to win any race at the festival 8/1 Betfair Sportsbook(7/1 WH)
Arctic Fire 33/1 ew Corals
Irving:
Current favourite in the betting and i know a lot of people that like this one. He has done nothing wrong in his three starts but i am just not convinced about the form of his wins. Only one horse has come out and won from his three races.
December Ascot:
-Prince Siegfried (who was probably going to be second but was still beside the winner)was alongside last time when falling at the last was well beat in the Tolworth by 22l when last of 6 behind Royal Boy
-Spash of Ginge who was 6l behind in third was beat 16l by Deputy Dan next time out
November Ascot:
-A Hares Breath(getting 5lbs) was second beaten 4l(first start of the season) was beaten 9l in fourth by Josses Hill next time out
-Fond Memory (getting 5lbs) was fourth beaten 8l and was beaten 30+ by Ballyalton next time out.
November Taunton:
-Cup Final 4l back in second not been since through injury but was beaten further by the Skyfarmer the time before
-Magic Money 8l back in third was beaten out of sight in a handicap off 106 next time out.
At the moment he has of course won all his races easily and hard to know how good he is, but the quality of what he has beaten, makes me really question the form. His next outing is in the betfair hurdle and we will know a lot more about him then and will be a deserving favourite if he goes close off a mark of 143.
Vautour
Opinions ore divided on this one as he looked sure to be Willie Mullins' first string here before running last time. All the money on the run up to his race was for him to win this. His price varies from 7/1 to 12/1 with the bookmakers and even they are struggling to get a grasp on him. I think there has been a very negative view taken of his win last time due to the second being handled by unfashionable connections. But think it is a lot better than people are giving him credit for.
He easily won his maiden hurdle first time of asking for the stable when cantering clear of subsequent 15l winner Lieutenant Colonel at Navan over 2m.
After than run he went off at the prohibitive odds of 1/4 to win the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novices hurdle at Navan and win he did but not in the fashion many expected. He was made work hard and had to gallop all the way to the line to beat Western Boy and those two pulled 11 lengths clear of the third (who was beaten close to the same distance in the Grade1 Royal Bond) up the straight.
Just to put it into perspective - Western Boy won nicely on his 2 previous runs.
Won his bumper at Thurles by 2 1/2l from Mm Dazzler who won next time out by 5l.
Won what looked a very competitive maiden hurdle at Leopardstown going away by 3 1/2l.
Kylestyle in 2nd won easily next time out
Sizing Codelco beat 10l in 6th won next time out
The Winkler beat 21l in 10th won next time out
Add to that the 3rd and 4th - 3rd: Daneking argubaly would have won next time without a very bad mistake and 4th: Chancol was going very well next time out and looked the winner when coming down
Overall his form has a decent look to it and think many have underrated this formline due to the price Vautour went off on the day and expecting him to win easier. To my mind he just met a very decent rival on the day and showed he can battle when required. But at 12/1, i cant say he makes much appeal from an Antepost point of view as i dont think he will be a whole lot shorter if turning up here on the day.
Josses Hill:
Two out of three for his new stable since being purchased after his debut second behind Faugheen. Easily winning his bumper and maiden hurdle and looked one that would improve for the experience. Looked very green when winning his bumper but showed that experience did him the world of good when looking a lot more professional when easily winning his maiden hurdle at Newbury.
-Tiqris 4l back 3rd won easily last weekend.
Then he went to the Tolworth as the stable first string and stepped up on that form again when just going down in the final strides to his stablemate Royal Boy. But once more, as with some of the english formlines its hard to get a grasp on it. The Liquidator who was a well backed favourite clearly didnt run his race as he stopped like he was shot turning in. Garde La Victoire was keen and didn't get home in the ground. Upazo who would'nt be next or near the top of Willie Mullins' Novice hurdle ranks was 3rd but the front 2 did pull 11l clear of him.Was it a case of the front 2 handling the soft ground and others not handling it? Royal Boy was proven over further and in the end it was stamina won the day for him. I would nt rule out Josses Hill and he would probably be at the top of the english 2m novices for me. Seems to be improving with each run and will be aimed here. 14/1 is a fair price for those who like him.
West Wizard;
Antepost favourite for the race most of the autumn after being shouted from the rooftops by connections.
Went off an odds on favourite on debut at Kempton in March when gliding to a effortless 6 lengths victory over
-The Pirates Queen - won next time out and second in a listed hurdle last time
-The Skyfarmer 8l behind in 3rd won his next 4 starts and is now rated 140
Was then put away for the summer to allow him to mature and fill out his frame more. He came out then in November in a maiden hurdle at Kempton where he went off an unbackable 1/6 shot but things didn't go to plan and he was beaten from a long way out and was a well held second behind Sgt Reckless. Nicky Hendersons horses were not running well at that time and i would be very confident he is much better than that as he and Barry Geraghty know a good one when they see it and really like this fella. We did get an update last week that the horse is fine and they are waiting for better ground before letting him run. But the big break he has had, coupled with his lack of experience doesnt entile him to be 5th favourite at this stage of the season.
Valseur Lido:
Probably the hardest horse in the field to get a handle on - has to be put in the "could be anything" category. Effortless winner of both his starts since coming over from France. Hasn't had to come out of second gear on both occasions, jumped and travelled like a very good horse but its impossible to judge the form. All his runs have been on bottomless ground too which would be a slight worry come March. Has an entry in the Deloitte and we may know a lot more about him then but could be one kept at home with the future in mind?
Others of note:
Western Boy - discussed above with Vautour. Could be overlooked if travelling over and would definitely be interesting ew at a price. Form has worked out well
Royal Boy: Being aimed at the Neptune
Zamdy Man: 3/3 this year and has improved massively for the summer on his back. Disposed of the expensive David Pipe purchase Un Temps Pour Tout last weekend in the Supreme trial at Haydock. Form of his Listed win at Haydock in November looks solid too - The second (who he gave 8lbs to) won by 4 1/2l next time out. Could be argued he is overpriced but would be very disappointing if he was good enough to win a Supreme.
The Liquidator: Grade 1 bumper winner at Punchestown to end last season in a race that has produced numerous winners. Effortless winner of his first two hurdle starts including a 15l demolition of Sea Lord at Cheltenham who is a very decent yardstick. Went off a very well backed favourite for the Tolworth but disappointed massively when beat a long way out. They still have not got to the bottom of what went wrong and that would be a worry and would have to see him fit and well on the track again before backing him Antepost.
Red Sherlock: Very likeable sort who is unbeaten in 5 starts. Last 2 wins have been over 2m4f and 2m5f and is entered in the Neptune trial tomorrow at Cheltenham so you would think he will be aimed at the longer race.
Aklan: Very decent on the flat and an easy winner on hurdles debut, but had absolutely nothing to beat when Chancol came to grief.
First Mohican: 106 rated on the flat and now with Alan King. Not been seen over a hurdle in public yet and must be a doubt he will make the gig in March.
Moyle Park: A horse i really like but does himself no favours by being extremely keen in his races. 2/2 in bumpers and a very easy winner of his maiden hurdle (2nd won easily last week). And he looked the winner turning in, when last seen in the Future Champions Grade 1 at Leopardstown before fading to third. Ruby said he pulled too hard and had nothing left. A fast run 2m in the Supreme could bring out the best in him if he turns up on the day but that must be questionable with the owner having Vautour also.
Wilde Blue Yonder: Would arguably be 3/3 this season without falling at the last when last seen. Very gutsy horse who keeps finding when asked. Had Tiqris back in 3rd when winning his maiden hurdle(form ties in with Josses Hill) and Fascino Rustico 20l back in 5th who was just beaten by Amore Alto next time and had Sgt Reckless behind(form with West Wizard) Could be one for the Neptune maybe but where ever he runs he will run a nice race but would like to see a confidence booster first after the fall last time.
And finally onto the selections! I have personally taken the view that the Irish form is stronger. Form of the Grade 1 races is probably not as strong as previous years but i still think it is the best form on offer in what looks a wide open year in the 2m Novice division.
The Tullow Tank:
Has really come to himself this year after needing time to mature. Finished last season by winning a bumper in very eyecatching fashion, travelling well and sprinting clear to win by 9l
-Real Steel in 2nd won on his hurdles debut by 17l
-Timesremembered in 3rd was sold to england and won his 1st 2 starts there including an impressive 6l win in the Persian War at Chepstow before being 2nd to Creepy in a Neptune trial and also 2nd in the Grade 1 Challow to Captain Cutter
The Tullow Tank was then put away for the summer to "grow up" as Philip Fenton put it and he started off this season as he let off. He found a bit of trouble in running 2 out but really quickened to beat Turnandgo who went off a well backed 8/11 favourite on the back of 2 long distance bumper wins including a 9l win over Captain Cutter.
He was then stepped up to Grade 1 class in the Royal Bond Novices hurdle over 2m on good/yielding ground, which was the quickest ground he encountered so far on the racecourse. He jumped and travelled well and showed he can knuckle down to win when getting the better of Renetti late on.
-Renetti was in the process of hosing up at Limerick when falling 2 out
-Very Wood 7l back in 5th was a fast finishing 3l third to Briar Hill next time out
But most behind haven't been seen since.
Then The Tullow Tank turned up in the Paddy Power Grade 1 Future Champions Novices Hurdle and put up his most impressive performance. Easily winning under hands and heels riding and still looking a baby with his ears pricked at the last. He is a dual Grade 1 winner at 2 miles in what so far looks an average Supreme Novices hurdle field. If he was trained by Willie Mullins what price would he be as a dual Grade 1 winner on the back of 4 straight wins? I would venture to say 4/1 maximum(given Vautour is 7s in places!). The Deloitte is going to tell us a lot more in 2 weeks and how interesting would it be if Faugheen turned up? I know there is those who think he is a Neptune horse but i dont see why they would want to step up 5f in trip when you are on a winning run at 2 miles. I know he has looked more of a stayer on his last 2 runs but i have put my take on it below.
Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle - Grade 1 (2m) Soft
Travelled very well to 2 out - actually took a pull before that he was going so well.
Think the jock got lower in the saddle to ensure he didn't get caught in a pocket, more than it being a case of urgency - you can see from the side on he was rowing along bare hands and heels, never had to go after him so could have been deceptive that he was flat out under pressure but i think that is no where near the truth. The minute he pulled him to the outer of Moyle Park and King of the Picts, the acceleration was instant under the minimum of asking. He passed them and went away in a matter of strides. He had his ears pricked coming to the last and Danny Mullins never reached for his stick which lets me believe there was loads left in the tank as he is a horse that finds under pressure.
Bar One Royal Bond Novices Hurdle - Grade 1 - (2m) Good/Yielding
This was proper good ground 2m race run at a decent clip. The Tullow Tank showed that he can handle the hustle and bustle too after gettin in a bit of a barging match down the back. Once more he quickened nicely to come out of the pack to the outer turnin in, to get a position which shows me he has tactical speed. He was travelling very well turning in to close up on the leader, but a slow jump 2 out where Rennetti pinged gifted that one a 3l lead but once more when the jock got lower in the saddle he quickened immediately and very nicely i thought to close the gap in a matter of strides. Although he was goin away at the line i dont think that screamed that a step up to 2m5f at Cheltenham is what he needs so would be very hopefull the Supreme is where he will turn up.
Sounds like the owner is leaning towards 2m campaign too but that could change next time, Barry Connell interview from during the week :
"He's not short of pace and you'd imagine a true-run two-mile race would be ideal. It will be interesting to see when he goes up to two and a quarter in the Deloitte, that will tell us a bit more.
Arctic Fire:
A horse that wont be on many peoples radar but he is a horse i really like but good ground is a must. Motionless winner first time out for the stable after being bought from France at Tipperary - gave weight and a beating to a solid yardstick in Enchanted Forest and Diyala in 3rd won a Novice hurdle since.
Would have won next time at Gowran Park when coming down, was full of running behind a wall of horses and clipped heels and came down.
But his real eyecatching run was his run in the Royal Bond behind The Tullow Tank when he arguably should have won. He was given way too much to do and made up a massive amount of ground up the straight, even more impressive as he was the only one to come from off the pace and he only went down by 1 1/2l at the line and was making ground hand over fist.
I think his last run in the Future Champions at Leopardstown can be written off as the ground was all wrong for him - Willie Mullins was interviewed on Attheraces the evening before and he said if there was any rain, Arctic fires chance would be gone and of course it proceeded to spill all night long and turned into a slog and that stuck in my head since. He has now got a mark of 138 which could be very interesting if they decided to travel over for a good ground betfair hurdle at Newbury but as with all Mullins handicap horses, we wont know till the final declarations!
So rightly or wrongly i have taken a view that the irish form is slightly better at this stage. The Deloitte is going to be an extremely informative race in 2 weeks and i reckon we will have some big market changes by the time that and the betfair hurdle have passed. The Tullow Tank is a thoroughly likeable sort, travels well through his races and jumps for fun. I think he possesses speed for a Supreme even though plenty disagree with me but also finds under pressure and will keep going to the line which can be a big bonus in a Supreme (Champagne Fever, Al Ferof in recent years). And i don't think he is finished improving yet. Arctic Fire is a more speculative one but i think there is definitely a big race in him and when he gets some decent ground you will see a much better horse than last time.
Selections
The Tullow Tank to win any race at the festival 8/1 Betfair Sportsbook(7/1 WH)
Arctic Fire 33/1 ew Corals
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