Northumberland Plate

The Main Contenders

Pique Sous 9/2

Highly impressive winner at Royal Ascot in the Queen Alexandra Stakes which probably puts him 8lbs+ well in here under a mandatory 5lbs penalty. Fast ground is very important to him and he should get that here. The price is very fair to be honest but i would have a big worry about him turning out again so quickly - its not an easy task trying to win two of the biggest staying prizes of the season in one week. He has also been known to throw in the odd disappointing performance, most notable when beaten twice at odds on behind Ted Veal and Marchese Marconi last summer in races you would have expected him to win.

If the same horse at Royal Ascot turns up though, they have it all to do to beat him.

Angel Gabrial 10/1

Solid performer last year over 10-12f - winning at Ascot before coming a very decent 6th in the John Smiths Cup beaten just 4l behind Danchai. But the step up in trip this season to 2m+ appears to be the making of him. Winning over 2miles at Ripon beating a very decent yardstick in Mubaraza (3rd when jt fav in this race last year) with 7l back to the 3rd Chocola who won next time out and Sizzler beaten 9l in 4th, was a very good 3rd in the Ascot stakes last week so the form has a rock solid look to it.

But the run that really has to catch everyones eye is the run at Chester last time, was keen throughout the race and sat last giving the leader what must have been 12-15l but it was the move at the 4f pole that is quite breathtaking. He passed the whole field wide on the outside and went from last to first turning in. I was v taken by this as he (1) had to quicken v strongly to pass the whole field (2) he was able to quicken away from them again when he met the straight and put 2/3l between him and the field. He was entitled to get very tired late on given the run he put in to get to the front but surprisingly ran all the way to the line when straightened after hanging off the rail. He also showed he improved from his 1st run at 2m+ by beating Mubaraza further than when they met at Ripon.

De Rigeur 14/1

Very progressive sort last season, in the process rising from an opening winning mark of 59 to ending the year on a mark of 95. This included winning a very competitive 2m handicap at Haydock off a mark of 86 by 1.5l from Sun Central with a wide gap back to the 3rd. Sun Central could nt have done more to frank that form winning the John Smiths Silver Cup off 4lbs higher next time and ending the season winning A Listed handicap off 108.

De Rigeur looked to be really out of sorts on his first 2 starts this season when being beaten 36l and 23l on his first two starts of the season, when being well fancied in the market on both occasions. Turned up at Newmarket last time then over 1m4f as an unconsidered 25/1 shot and bounced right back to form when winning from Duke of Clarence (close form with Duke of Edinburgh winner Arab Spring). Didnt have the clearest of runs through but powered home to win when getting in the clear. Still unexposed over 2m after having only 2 starts over the trip.

Suegioo 14/1

Chester Cup winner last time beating Angel Gabrial with a strong run down the outside. Improved for the step up in trip but i think he will struggle to confirm that form assuming Angel Gabrial is ridden with more restraint.

Van Percy 16/1

Easy winner of a 1m6f handicap at Newmarket last time and a 6lb rise looks very fair given the winning margin, That was a funny race though as they split so not sure id be taking the form too literally, but did have De Rigeur well behind. Has looked progressive and the step up to 2m could suit.

Nearly Caught 16/1

Has been highly tried after winning a handicap at Haydock off 85 in September. Beaten 4l in a Group 2 at Longchamp and lost his way after that finishing last in a handicap at Doncaster in his last start and starting this season by finishing last in a Group 3 at Newbury. But i think they could have been riding him wrong and making too much use of him, he showed last time that that could be the case when bouncing back to form with a good 2nd at Haydock last time when held up. He stayed on all the way to the line off 1lb lower and George Baker being jocked up again should mean similar tactics are employed here.

Earth Amber 16/1

A very consistent sort on the flat having come second in two listed races and second in a group 3 since coming from France. But has yet to win for new connections, tried over hurdles but didnt take to it - a 100 rating on the flat v a 113 rating over hurdles! Could rack up quite a few wins in that sphere if they get him to take to them!

Ran very well in April when second in a decent looking listed race at Nottingham over 1m6f off a mark of 92. (High Jinx over 3l behind in 3rd was 2nd to Brown Panther in a G3 last time). And then he went on to even better that effort when finishing 2nd to Tac De Boistron on his favoured soft ground in the G3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot having the likes of Missunited, Harris Tweed and Simenon well behind.

The price he has paid for his consistency though is his mark has risen from 88 to 100 without winning but should be thereabouts at the finish as he is never far away.

Oriental Fox 16/1

Beaten a short head in this race year (when he was my main bet of course!!) by Tominator. Proved that was no fluke by romping away with a Cesarewith trial at Newmarket off a mark of 99. And went on to run 6th in the real thing off a mark of 104 beat 6l after travelling well and not having the best of runs through. I must say it really caught my eye how he travelled in the Ascot gold Cup last week and was far from disgraced being beaten just 9l by Leading Light at the line.

Best of the rest

Dark Crusader 25/1

Probably the most interesting horse in the whole race, 3 wins in a row including a competitive handicap at York had seen her mark skyrocketing from 64 to 97. Was a very well backed favourite on her final start of the season at Ascot when going off at 5/4 in a strong race but was ultimately well beaten in last. Has been campaigned interestingly this season at trips well short of her best - 7f, 8f, 10f so looks like she may be lined up for a big pot somehwere over longer. And the form of her York win ties in favourable with De Rigeur on a line through Dashing Star. Very interesting contender if this is the plan.

Thomas Edison 16/1

Winner of his last 2 starts over 1m4f off 76 and 83. Has another 9lb rise to contend with here but has looked like a horse that had a big pot in him for a long time whether it will be over flat or hurdles. Beat Champagne Fever easily in a bumper and goes in the could be anything category even though im not sure he stays well enough for this.

Whiplash Willie 16/1

Missed nearly 3 years through injury but looked like he never missed a beat when winning on his comeback run over 1m6f at Salisbury off 93. Subsequently went on to finish 3rd behind Brown Panther at Sandown and now has a mark of 108 to contend with even though jockey of the moment Oisin Murphy does take 3lbs off.

Tropical Beat 25/1

Was off for almost a year last season before making his seasonal debut in September. Was a fair 2nd on that occasion before being stepped up in trip on his next 2 starts, On both occasions had no luck in running and chance was gone. 3rd behind Van Percy on seasonal debut this time and could be one to hit the frame if the gaps appear.

Totalize 20/1

Romped away with a 1m6f handicap 2 weeks ago at York, staying on strongly to win by 3 1/2l at the line from Eagle Rock. Goes on good ground but if rain was to arrive his price would crumble being one of the few that will relish a softer surface.

Repeater 25/1

Looked a horse that was bound for a decent win after a very eyecatching 3rd in the Doncaster Cup last season. Travelled like a dream before being outstayed the last 1/2f, but it has'nt really happened for him since, being well beaten on all 5 starts since and not always finding what it looks like he might. Obviously not an easy horse to win with but mark has dropped to  102 from 109 and if he was to find some of his old sparkle could give a decent run. Has nt won since September 2011 though and has been beaten off marks from 86 to 94 in the meantime before two good runs in the Doncaster Cup ruined his mark.


Conclusion - Difficult race as always to sort out and the draw could play a big part. But the question as always is wait for prices to contract further after decs tomorrow or try to nab some value before hand with the usual antepost risk of losing your stake. Angel Gabrial looks a certain runner and can only see his price going one way and would expect him to be a very strong 2nd favourite at off time. He ran an unbelievable race last time and i was quite astonished he kept going all the way to the line after the massive move half a mile out to pass the field and looks one to stay on the right side of in these staying handicaps.

Dark Crusader is the most interesting horse in the race and that price of 25/1 is only going to go one way if she is a confirmed runner and could turn into a big gamble. Question is though, without knowing if she is intended, is it worth losing money Antepost? Probably not.

Oriental Fox proved to me last season he could be competitive off this kind of mark and runs this season have proved no different. 10lbs higher than when 2nd here last year and only 6lbs higher than when romping away with the Cesarewitch trial before coming 6th in the real thing off 1lb lower than his rating here, travelling well and getting hampered. He took a lot of racing last summer so hopefully the run in the Ascot Gold Cup where he travelled very well till they turned in wont have taken too much out of him.


Angel Gabrial 10/1 ew
Oriental Fox 16/1 ew