County Hurdle

Ifandbutwhynot 20/1 ew Generally


Dont usually look at stats but seein it fits so many i'll chuck em in,

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· Aged 5 to 7 (ideally 5) X
· Carrying 10-10+ (not top weight) x
· Officially rated 130 to 140 X
· Finished in the first 3 last time out in last 70 days X
· Run at least 3 times this season & run in a handicap hurdle worth 16K+ X
· First or second season hurdlers X
· Run in 1 to 7 handicap hurdles X
· Won no more than 3 handicap hurdles (ideally won none) X
· Won a class 3 or higher hurdle X
· Finished in first 5 in Boylesports and/or Betfair H’cap Hurdles
· Tends to be held up X
· Trained by Paul Nicholls or in Ireland

Meets 10/12 of the trends

12Mar13 1:30 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle Grade 1

13Mar13 2:06 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Registered Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle) Grade 1

15Mar13 2:08 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3

15Mar13 4:43 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle


Has 4 entries but the 2 novice races are completely out surely and all of his races have been over 2m or 2m1 so it must be county hurdle you would think.

Seemed to need his first run of the season when a beaten fav in 3rd but as it turns out it was 2 130+ rated horses in front so prob nt as bad a run as it was thought at the time!

Then in a Novice hurdle at Newcastle on g/s beat the since very impressive and now 142 rated Eduard(2 wide margin wins and a close 3rd behind Melodic Rendevouz since), jumped and travelled well and showed guts to hold on at the finish!

Followed up that win next time out here at Chelt on soft ground(off 117) when giving 5lbs and an emphatic beating to Taneko Emery(off 112). Was hampered twice in that race and still was a very easy winner.

-Form has since been boosted massively with the 2nd Tameko Emery winning very easily on his next 2 runs and argubaly should have won the Welsh Champion hurdle and is now rated 141

-And Brick Red in 6th beaten 16l by Ifandbutwhynot giving away 1lb winning its next 3 starts and finishing 2nd in a G2 last weekend and now rated 146

Went on to go off favourite in a very warm Sandown Listed Hurdle off 130 next time out but disappointed when finishing 9th of 12 but i think it can be worth forgiving that run as the ground was very tacky and horses that were held up finished 7/8/9 so it was nt easy to come from the back

Bounced back to form last week with an easy win at Mussellburgh off 130, travelled well and quickened when asked to win by nearly 3l from Ultimate giving him 7lbs(Ultimate who was beat 8l by Swing Bowler off levels123 (And Swing Bowler now rated 138) Would probably put Ifbutandwhynot just ahead of it on revised ratings. A 5lb rise for last win does nt seem harsh and Timmy Murphy feels a race like the County will suit

Murphy told Racing UK: "The key to him is if he settles. We slowed up mid-race and I was a lot handier than I wanted to be.

"I think all those competitive two-mile handicaps like the County Hurdle will be right up his street, he loves passing horses and I think he's better left-handed."

and i think there is still some room to play the off a mark of 135 given his form with horses now rated high 130s and 140+

There is a slight worry he may not get in but represents a decent ew bet at 20/1 i think