14Mar13 4:42 (Early closer) at Cheltenham, Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)
Has nt been seen for a while but only entry is here, soft ground doesnt suit so i assume they have been minding him given the winter we have had and are waiting for some fairly decent ground
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 8 or 9 X
· Carrying 10-10 or more after claim (top weight won 2 of last 3) X (should do anyway)
· Officially rated within 11lbs of top weight X
· Finished in first 3 on one or both of last two starts X
· Ran in a class 3 or better handicap chase over 3M+ last time X
· Won over 3M+ X
· 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chaser (or finished in first 5 in 2011 JLT H’cap Chase) X
· Run in 1 to 8 handicap chases (won no more than 2)
· Ridden by a jockey with no claim (R Burton or R Harding) ??
· Trained by N Henderson, D McCain, D Pipe, F Murphy or D Hughes
Meets 7/10 trends, possible more depending on wat happens!
Form at Cheltenham from latest first - PU-2-1-1-4-5-10
Form on good/soft or better - 2-PU-3-4-1-3-1-4
Ignoring soft ground which he doesnt like - last 4 runs at Chelt when good to soft or better 2-1-1-4
In October off a mark of 137 - jumped and travelled well when just beaten by the in form Balthazar King, showed great battling qualities when passed to keep going too i thought
The Nov 11 - easily won a v competitive hcap off 135 with the Hennessy winner (2weeks later) in Carruthers 14l behind in 3rd
Was 4th in this race in 2011 behind runaway winner Junior but is a much improved horse now, dont know why he didnt run last year tbh though
But given he loves the course, will relish better ground and well proven over 3m+, dropped 2lbs for run lto wen ground was massively against him and only 2lbs higher than wen 2nd here in Oct in a competitive race! John Thomas McNamara is due back from injury this weekend and has ridden this fella before and i would be hoping they will link up again goven the quote below from today..
"I'm also riding one for Jonjo in the Kim Muir but I'm not sure which. Alan (Berry) will ride one and I'll ride the other. I'm riding at a point-to-point this weekend. I didn't want it to be a race against time before Cheltenham so I'm going back this weekend."
Given the doubts about the likely festival targets of those towards the top of the market, this race could cut up a lot between now and the day and 20/1 for Galaxy Rock e/w looks a decent investment.
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