JLT Speciality Chase

Tour Des Champs 33/1, (betfair fixed odds NRNB, WH)

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 10 X
· Irish bred
· Carrying 10-5 to 10-13 X
· Officially rated 129 to 143 (especially 139-143)  X
· Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won) X
· Posted an RPR of 134+ last time X
· Won over 3M+ X
· First or second season chaser X
· Won 2 to 5 times over fences X
· Won a class 3 or better handicap chase X
· Won or placed in a NH race worth 39K+
· Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2) X
· Priced 11/1 or below ?
· Trained by Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe or in Ireland

Meets a lot of the trends

There is one negative with this fella and that is his jumping but he can but he has proved capable of a good round in both of his wins this season.

Proven on soft ground which could prove to be a big plus given the likely testing ground.

Started off the season disappointingly when falling first time out(when held in 3rd by Sire Collognes and ran so sort of race next time out at Newbury when trailing in a disappointing 8th off a mark of 129

Showed the form of that run to be all wrong next time out though when winning by 16l next time out at Ludlow over 3m on soft ground off a mark of 127, jumped well on this occassion and stretched right clear 3 out to win eased down from Allthekingshorses(jumped very poorly behind Loch Ba lto and was staying on when falling at the last, would have been 3rd at best), Milo Milan back in 3rd won next time out.

Ran in a much hotter next time out at Warwick in what lloked a quite hot Novices Chase, jumped average down the back but was still well in it staying on, when falling 2 out(would have been 2nd more than likely the way it panned out) behind Rocky Creek

Rocky Creek rated 142- won the Reynoldstown next time out(now 152)

Fill The Power rated 135

Highland Lodge rated 139

Forgotten Gold 135

So it was a decent race for the level and Tour Des Champs was giving 3lbs to the first 2 and to my mind would have been 2nd if he stayed up, the fall was a very soft one too, seemed to jump fine but just knuckled on landing.

Next time out at the start of February over 3 miles at Ffos Llas he showed he is still progressing with an impressive display from the front, jumped well from the front and was in command from a long way out to win by 31l from the 129 rated Once in a Milan (getting 4lbs too). The 135 rated Benheir pulled up (jumped poor)

Last time out he was stepped into Graded company to reoppose Rocky Creek in the Reynoldstwon on soft, was quite strong in the market this day too and jumped well from the front for a long way and was still in front and well in contention when making a shuddering mistake 4 out which put an end to his chances of winning. Was still quite astonoshing he finished only 13l back from the winner which leads me to believe he would have gone very close without that misteake and the front 2 are very solid horses (rocky Creek 152, Houblon Des Obeaux 148) which i think gives Tour Des Champs some room off a mark of 139.

Fits a lot of the trends for this race, will go on soft ground, mark is workable and should be running here as Sam Twiston Davis is jocked up already for this and is guaranteed to get in. There is obviously a worry about his jumping but he has proved that he can ping around and hopefully he can put in one of those rounds here and i see very little downside to him at 33/1 NRNB ew.